DK Street Journal

Five9's AI Revenue Grew 78% — and Arrived at a Lower Margin Than the Seats It Replaces

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.5

The bear case on seat-priced contact-center software is that AI voice agents destroy the billable human agent. At Five9 the seats are not shrinking — management says concurrent agent counts are growing in line with contact-center revenue, and dollar-based retention was 107%. What is shrinking is the margin: gross margin fell to 53.4% from 54.9% a year earlier as inference costs landed in cost of revenue, so gross profit grew 7.3% against revenue up 10.3%. The AI attach is real and it is dilutive.

The shares have run far ahead of that. Five9 now costs 3.81x its trailing gross profit against 2.36x in February, a 61% re-rating while trailing gross profit grew 4.9%. RingCentral, the cheapest of the three at 13.3x forward earnings, at least de-levered to 1.5x net debt and tripled net income. Zoom, up a quarter in a month, has disclosed nothing since May and reports on 25 August.

FIVNRNGZMBOXNICECRMNOWMNDYHUBSINTUContact-Center SoftwareAI Voice AgentsInference Cost DragSeat-Based SaaS PricingUnified CommunicationsGross Margin Compression
TickerCompanySegmentTrend · 13mo30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
FIVNFive9Communications & Collaboration🌱 Emerging Bull+20.8%+18.8%
RNGRingCentralCommunications & Collaboration🟢 Cont. Bull+73.5%+117.5%
ZMZoom CommunicationsCommunications & Collaboration🟢 Cont. Bull+17.4%+30.3%
Compared against · context, not the story
BOXBoxCommunications & Collaboration🌱 Emerging Bull+15.5%+2.7%
NICENICECustomer Experience & CRM🔴 Cont. Bear+15.7%−29.5%
CRMSalesforceCustomer Experience & CRM🔴 Cont. Bear+15.2%−15.3%
NOWServiceNowSpecialized Enterprise Solutions🔴 Cont. Bear+16.1%−27.6%
MNDYmonday.comOther🔴 Cont. Bear+3.7%−49.2%
HUBSHubSpotCustomer Experience & CRM🔴 Cont. Bear+0.8%−49.4%
INTUIntuitEnterprise Resource Planning🔴 Cont. Bear+16.8%−44.5%

12-month price & trend

FIVN
Five9
32.75
+0.45 (+1.39%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
FIVN 12-month price
Communications & Collaboration
RNG
RingCentral
67.01
+1.43 (+2.18%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
RNG 12-month price
Communications & Collaboration
ZM
Zoom Communications
107
+1.13 (+1.06%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ZM 12-month price
Communications & Collaboration
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
FIVN$2.5B43.1x10.1x2.1x2.0x3.8x3.6x15.2x7.9%
RNG$5.8B51.9x13.3x2.2x2.2x3.1x3.0x20.8x11.6%
ZM$31.5B15.5x17.8x6.4x6.2x8.3x8.0x11.0x6.2%
BOX
Box
32.67
−0.23 (−0.70%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
BOX 12-month price
Communications & Collaboration
NICE
NICE
100
+0.05 (+0.05%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NICE 12-month price
Customer Experience & CRM
CRM
Salesforce
209
+3.74 (+1.82%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CRM 12-month price
Customer Experience & CRM
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
BOX$4.5B48.2x20.6x3.7x3.5x4.7x4.4x28.7x7.8%
NICE$5.9B14.2x9.0x1.9x1.9x2.9x2.9x6.8x10.8%
CRM$171.3B24.1x14.8x4.0x3.7x5.2x4.8x14.6x8.6%
NOW
ServiceNow
128
−1.27 (−0.98%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NOW 12-month price
Specialized Enterprise Solutions
MNDY
monday.com
90.33
−1.03 (−1.13%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MNDY 12-month price
Other
HUBS
HubSpot
240
+0.15 (+0.06%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
HUBS 12-month price
Customer Experience & CRM
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
NOW$132.8B79.8x31.6x9.0x8.2x12.1x11.0x39.8x3.4%
MNDY$3.8B38.0x16.6x2.8x2.6x3.2x2.9x34.1x7.8%
HUBS$12.3B84.8x18.1x3.6x3.3x4.3x4.0x40.8x6.2%
INTU
Intuit
365
+2.19 (+0.60%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
INTU 12-month price
Enterprise Resource Planning
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
INTU$89.0B19.7x11.9x4.3x3.7x5.2x4.6x13.0x8.7%

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
FIVNRevenue+9.5%+9.9%+10.6%
EPS+10.5%+18.0%+16.6%
RNGRevenue+5.1%+4.6%+4.4%
EPS+16.4%+11.1%+10.8%
ZMRevenue+4.2%+4.8%+4.0%
EPS+9.7%+1.3%+4.0%
BOXRevenue+7.8%+9.0%+8.1%
EPS−24.4%+22.4%+14.3%
NICERevenue+8.2%+9.1%+11.8%
EPS−8.9%+13.7%+22.2%
CRMRevenue+9.3%+11.1%+9.4%
EPS+17.4%+20.2%+10.4%
NOWRevenue+22.4%+18.7%+18.6%
EPS+17.1%+23.2%+21.4%
MNDYRevenue+19.8%+15.2%+14.9%
EPS+27.8%+22.3%+19.1%
HUBSRevenue+18.2%+14.2%+14.0%
EPS+38.2%+25.7%+18.6%
INTURevenue+13.9%+11.3%+10.8%
EPS+18.5%+15.0%+12.6%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Five9 sells the software that runs corporate call centers — routing voice, chat and email to human agents — and it bills for it by the seat. In the June quarter it sold considerably more artificial intelligence. Revenue from AI products rose 78% to roughly $39m, an annual run rate above $150m, and now accounts for about 15% of subscription revenue against 9% a year earlier, according to the company's second-quarter disclosures. Management raised its full-year AI growth target to at least 60% and lifted revenue guidance to $1.266bn-$1.272bn.

It also earned less on each dollar. Gross margin fell to 53.4% from 54.9% a year earlier and 55.9% in the prior quarter, so gross profit grew 7.3% while revenue grew 10.3%. The adjusted figure tells the same story, slipping to 61.4% from 63.0%. Inference is a cost of goods sold. Selling an AI agent is not the same business as licensing a seat, and the reported margin now says so.

The seats are not disappearing

The widely held fear is that each automated conversation deletes a billable human. That is not yet visible. Five9's last-twelve-month subscription dollar-based retention was 107%, and management said concurrent agent seat counts are growing in line with contact-center revenue. Total revenue growth has accelerated three quarters running, to 10.3%. A Fortune 100 financial-services win worth about $100m in contract value will ramp to $25m of annual recurring revenue.

RingCentral, which sells cloud business telephony and is ranked first in unified-communications cloud PBX seats by Synergy Research, is monetizing the same idea from the other end. Customers using at least one paid native AI product now represent about 13% of its $2.8bn of annual recurring revenue, double a year ago, and its AI Receptionist product passed 16,000 paying customers, up 400%. Unlike Five9, its gross profit grew faster than revenue — 7.0% against 5.9% — at a 71.9% margin. Operating income rose 36% to $50.3m and net income tripled to $39.1m. It also raised the dividend 67% and cut leverage to 1.5x net debt to EBITDA, with gross debt heading toward $1.00bn from $1.64bn at the end of 2022.

Zoom is the control, because it has disclosed nothing. Its last report, on 21 May, showed revenue of $1.239bn up 5.5%, a 77.9% gross margin and operating income up 28.5%; enterprise revenue grew 7.2% while online monthly churn worsened to 3.0% from 2.8% and paid AI Companion users grew 184%. Its next print lands on 25 August.

What the price is now paying

Because gross margins across these businesses differ by more than 20 points, the comparable lens is what a buyer pays for a dollar of trailing gross profit. Five9 costs 3.81x, against 2.58x in May and 2.36x in February — a 61% re-rating over six months in which trailing gross profit grew 4.9%, from $628.0m to $658.6m. RingCentral has gone from 1.90x to 3.11x, up 64% on 3.6% gross-profit growth, though it remains the cheapest name here at 13.3x forward earnings with an 11.6% free-cash-flow yield. Zoom has moved only from 7.16x to 8.25x, and carries the lowest enterprise value to EBITDA of the group at 11.0x — but its forward price/earnings of 17.8x sits above its 15.5x trailing multiple, meaning reported earnings are flattered by non-operating gains and consensus expects earnings per share to fall. Consensus sees no acceleration anywhere: Five9 near 10%, RingCentral 5.1% then 4.6%, Zoom 4.8% then 4.0%.

The month's gains were not earned the same way. Strip Five9's two best sessions — the 19.8% jump the day after its 6 August print and an 18.2% late-July gap — and the remaining sessions compound to 0.8%. RingCentral keeps 28% after removing its earnings day and the session that followed; Zoom keeps 11.2% while disclosing nothing. Macro helped: July producer prices came in flat on 13 August and the S&P 500 hit a record, and on 18 August money rotated from semiconductors into software after Anthropic's $65bn run-rate disclosure landed below expectations. But NICE, the largest contact-center vendor at 22.2% revenue share, is down 27% over twelve months in which these three rose between 28% and 130%. This is not a sector bounce.

It is also not a settled market. Five9 is third at 13.1% share behind NICE and Genesys at 19.7%; NICE bought conversational-AI vendor Cognigy for $955m, Salesforce and ServiceNow put $1.5bn into Genesys, and Salesforce's own Agentforce Contact Center went generally available in February with native access to customer data Five9 must integrate to reach.

The setup

Where it stands — AI is selling into these customer bases faster than it is deleting seats, but at Five9 it is arriving below corporate gross margin.

Would confirm — Five9 gross margin stabilizing at or above 53.4% next quarter while AI revenue growth holds near 60%.

Would invalidate — Dollar-based retention falling below 100% at Five9, or paid-AI ARR share stalling near 13% at RingCentral.

Watch next — Zoom reports its July quarter on 25 August, its first disclosure since 21 May.

Valuation — Five9 at 3.81x trailing and 3.65x forward gross profit against 2.36x in February; RingCentral 3.11x against 1.90x.