Three of the largest sellers of software that runs corporate payroll, accounting and finance departments have just had their sharpest month in years, and not one of them published a financial result during it. Intuit — QuickBooks, TurboTax and Credit Karma, sold to small businesses, consumers and accountants — reports fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results on 25 August. Workday, which sells cloud human-resources, payroll and financial-management systems to large employers, reports on 27 August and has disclosed nothing since 21 May. The rally is entirely pre-earnings.

Where the month came from

Two events carry most of it. Between 22 and 28 July, Workday gained 20.6% and SAP's American shares 20.5% while the S&P 500 fell 0.9% and Nvidia went nowhere — a rotation out of semiconductors into software after Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang rejected the idea that AI agents destroy software companies, arguing the agents will use more tools, not fewer. Then on 14 August Workday jumped 12.5% in a session on a report that Silver Lake is exploring a take-private above $50bn, talks described as preliminary with no certainty of a deal. Strip those two and Workday's month is roughly 11%. Roughly a quarter of the advance rests on an unsigned transaction.

The company that is supposed to be losing

Workday bills largely per worker, which makes it the purest listed short of white-collar headcount: every job an AI agent removes at a customer shrinks the base its own agents are sold into. Its latest disclosed numbers do not show that yet. Twelve-month subscription backlog reached $8.806bn, up 15.5% year on year, against 15.8% the prior quarter and comfortably ahead of the 13.5% revenue line. Gross margin was 76.2%, versus 76.0% a year earlier — no sign of the inference-cost squeeze that took Five9's gross margin down to 53.4% and ServiceNow's reported figure down 680 basis points. Operating income rose to $338m from $39m. And Workday put a dollar on the AI product where most vendors offer adoption percentages: new annual contract value from agentic products up more than 200%, approaching $500m of recurring revenue.

The pressure is showing elsewhere. Total backlog growth slowed to 10.9% from 12.2%. And the billed-employee base beneath the whole model is flat: ADP grew US pays per control 1% in fiscal 2026 and guides 0–1% for fiscal 2027. Stagnant, not shrinking — but there is no headcount growth left to carry the seat count.

The company that is supposed to be winning

Intuit is the counter-case: its claim is that AI lets it charge more per small-business customer, and it is moving to consumption pricing for completed tasks and autonomous workflows from this month. The lever is real — QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue grew 22% on higher effective prices, customer growth and mix. But the aggregate went the other way. Revenue growth decelerated through fiscal 2026 from 18.3% to 17.4% to 10.4%. Gross profit grew 9.2% against revenue up 10.4%; gross margin slipped to 84.4% and operating margin to 47.0%. Management guided the quarter it reports Monday to roughly 11–12% growth.

SAP, the European control, reacceleratedcloud backlog to about €23bn, up 26%, yet operating-profit growth halved to 9% and cloud gross margin fell 0.7 points to 74.6% on token costs, with the full-year profit outlook cut €100m. Chief executive Christian Klein called outcome-based AI pricing a chance to reset price levels — Intuit's argument, from the seat-priced side. SAP also said it plans no headcount increases going forward: the vendor demonstrating on itself the reduction that shrinks Workday's billing base.

What the price now embeds

Both American names are climbing out of a collapse the index never shared: Intuit is down 47.4% over twelve months and Workday 12.1%, against a 20.3% gain in the S&P 500. Intuit at 13.4x forward earnings costs 5.92x trailing gross profit, against roughly 11.3x a year ago — the recovery is repairing a halved multiple, not outrunning one. Workday is the closer call at 18.6x forward earnings and 7.02x trailing gross profit, up from about 4.4x in May, a 59% re-rating in three months on gross profit that grew about 3%. On the pricing test, the answer is unambiguous at all three: multiples are higher than they were three months ago. Enthusiasm absorbed this month, not earnings. Both get marked to disclosure this week.

The setup

Where it stands — A 51% month at Workday and 29% at Intuit built on a rotation and a buyout report, with no results published. Would confirm — Workday's 12-month subscription backlog growth holding at or above 15% on 27 August. Would invalidate — Workday guiding fiscal 2027 subscription revenue below the reiterated $9.925–9.950bn, or Silver Lake talks lapsing. Watch next — Intuit's fiscal fourth quarter on 25 August, Workday's second quarter on 27 August, Intuit investor day 17 September. Valuation — Workday 18.6x forward earnings and 7.02x trailing gross profit versus 4.4x in May; Intuit 13.4x forward, 5.92x versus 11.3x a year ago.