The suppliers to the nuclear industry do not share an income statement, and this summer they stopped sharing a share price. In the month to 21 August the businesses that dig and enrich uranium climbed, while the two closest to finished reactors fell. Nobody in the group disputes the demand story — data centers want firm, carbon-free power. What separates them is what each one earns today, and what its buyers are paying for a dollar of it.

The one that raised guidance and hit a low

BWX Technologies has built the reactors, fuel and missile launch tubes for the US Navy's submarines and carriers for decades under a security-cleared, sole-source arrangement — an unusually protected revenue base for an industrial company. Second-quarter revenue was $901.6m, up 18% year on year. Backlog reached $8.4bn, up 40%, on a trailing book-to-bill of 1.7 times. On 3 August the company raised every 2026 line it guides: revenue to roughly $3.8bn, adjusted earnings to $4.70-4.80 a share, free cash flow to $345-360m.

The shares then set a 52-week low of $156.95 on 20 August.

The single soft number sits in the smaller half of the company. Commercial Operations — steam generators, small-modular-reactor pressure vessels, TRISO fuel pellets, medical isotopes — grew revenue 72%, and its margin guidance slipped to about 13% from about 14% as BWXT hires and adds capacity. Government margin guidance went the other way, up to about 20.5%. The de-rating, in other words, is being charged against the start-up costs of the growth business, not the franchise. Management is conspicuously refusing to fund the speculative end: it licensed its mPower reactor design to Applied Atomics rather than absorb more than $600m of licensing spend, and is holding back full commercial fuel capex until a federal award lands.

Price per dollar of trailing gross profit tells the story cleanly. BWXT costs 18.5 times today, against 24.3 times three months ago, 25.9 times six months ago and 21.8 times a year ago — while trailing gross profit itself grew 11.5%. The forward price-to-earnings multiple has fallen to 33.1 times from roughly 46 times in May, on estimates that rose in between.

The one whose earnings collapsed and multiple expanded

Cameco mines and mills uranium in Saskatchewan, converts and fabricates fuel, and owns 49% of Westinghouse, whose AP1000 is the only large Western reactor with a completed US reference plant. Second-quarter revenue fell 7.2% to $814.1m. Gross profit fell a third. Net income fell to $25.2m, down 92%, which management tied to a non-recurring Westinghouse payment on the Czech Dukovany project booked a year earlier.

The contracted-book insulation did not show up. Cameco's average realised price was $67.79 a pound last quarter — 28% below the $94 long-term contract price, which has held since June at an 18-year high — because deliveries come off contracts signed when uranium was cheap. Yet the stock is up 43.5% over twelve months and costs 46.1 times trailing gross profit, against 32.8 times a year ago. Its forward multiple, 66.4 times, is essentially where it stood in May despite a 15.5% fall since February: estimates came down with the price.

What the price carries is Westinghouse, and that is dated. The unit filed a confidential draft prospectus on 31 July, the Department of Energy committed $17.5bn of conditional financing for AP1000 long-lead items in June, and Cameco tracks 91 AP1000 opportunities worldwide. An AP1000 ordered now produces electricity around 2033.

The one with no earnings at all

Oklo is designing the Aurora, a sodium-cooled fast powerhouse of 15-75 megawatts, and booked the first revenue in its history last quarter: $1.21m, against a $73.2m operating loss. Its dates moved forward, not right — its Groves isotope reactor reached first criticality less than 11 months after groundbreaking, the DOE approved the safety analysis for the Idaho unit, and the 2028 start-up stands. That unit proceeds under DOE authorisation rather than standard NRC licensing, which takes the regulator off the near-term critical path. What moved was the cost of those dates: 2026 operating cash use guidance rose to $120-150m from $80-100m, capital spending to $400-500m, funded by $1.9bn of at-the-market issuance that lifted diluted shares 25.8%. Of the $42.09 share price, roughly $17 is cash; the remaining $4.3bn of market value is an option on reactors not yet built, at 2.27 times book.

Rates explain one day, not the month

On 18 August the 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.323%, its highest since 2007, and all six nuclear names fell together, Oklo worst at -6.5%. It was the only such session of the month. A discount-rate story cannot explain a month in which the miners rallied through rising yields — and the fuel side has a mechanism of its own: the waivers that let US utilities buy Russian enriched uranium expire on 1 January 2028, removing about a quarter of US supply against Western capacity that cannot be expanded in time.

The setup

Where it stands — The nuclear supply chain split this summer: uranium names rallied on scarce enrichment, while the two closest to built reactors de-rated. Would confirm — BWXT's third-quarter revenue growth holding in the high teens with 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $4.70-4.80 intact. Would invalidate — A cut to BWXT's Government Operations margin guidance of about 20.5%, or a Cameco realised price falling below last quarter's $67.79. Watch next — Westinghouse's public S-1 filing, and BWXT's federal fuel-programme award, both expected during 2026. Valuation — BWXT: 18.5x trailing gross profit, 17.1x forward, against 25.9x in February. Cameco: 46.1x trailing, against 32.8x a year ago.