DK Street Journal

Humanoid Robots Are 0.4% of Vishay Precision's Sales. AI Data Centers Buy the Sensors

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.5

Six makers of the cameras, encoders, load cells and sensors that let machines see and position objects have been sold as the picks-and-shovels of humanoid robotics. Their August results say the money is coming from somewhere else entirely.

Vishay Precision Group, the name that markets humanoid hardware hardest, booked $500,000 of humanoid orders in the second quarter against $83.9m of revenue. What actually grew was artificial-intelligence infrastructure: Cognex raised its semiconductor, electronics and packaging end markets to double-digit growth; Novanta's generative-AI-linked applications reached about 17% of revenue, up roughly 25%; Sensata won five hyperscaler platform concepts. Automotive and Europe are the common drag at all three.

The shares have not moved as a group. Allient rose 18% on results; Vishay Precision fell 58% from its June high. Sensata, at 11.2x forward earnings against Cognex's 35.4x, is the one whose price has moved opposite its numbers.

CGNXNOVTSTVPGALNTBMIZBRATERKEYSROKAI Data-Center BuildoutMachine Vision & SensingHumanoid Robotics HypeSemiconductor Capital EquipmentAutomotive Sensor ContentPrecision Motion Control
TickerCompanySegmentTrend · 13mo30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
CGNXCognexPrecision Motion & Sensors🟢 Cont. Bull−5.4%+39.9%
NOVTNovantaPrecision Motion & Sensors🌱 Emerging Bull−1.3%+25.0%
STSensata TechnologiesPrecision Motion & Sensors🟢 Cont. Bull−9.4%+34.4%
Compared against · context, not the story
VPGVishay PrecisionPrecision Motion & Sensors🟢 Cont. Bull−43.8%+133.5%
ALNTAllientPrecision Motion & Sensors🟢 Cont. Bull+13.2%+136.4%
BMIBadger MeterPrecision Motion & Sensors🔴 Cont. Bear−10.2%−29.7%
ZBRAZebra TechnologiesIoT & Edge Connectivity🌱 Emerging Bull+35.2%+16.4%
TERTeradyneSemiconduct Equipment🟢 Cont. Bull+1.0%+245.6%
KEYSKeysight TechnologiesInstrumentation & Test Equipment🟢 Cont. Bull−2.6%+101.5%
ROKRockwell AutomationIndustrial Automation & Controls🟢 Cont. Bull−6.7%+28.6%

12-month price & trend

CGNX
Cognex
59.51
−2.15 (−3.48%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CGNX 12-month price
Precision Motion & Sensors
NOVT
Novanta
144
−2.01 (−1.38%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NOVT 12-month price
Precision Motion & Sensors
ST
Sensata Technologies
42.16
−0.61 (−1.43%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ST 12-month price
Precision Motion & Sensors
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
CGNX$9.9B56.7x35.4x9.1x8.6x13.2x12.5x34.7x2.7%
NOVT$5.1B90.5x39.0x5.0x4.5x11.7x10.6x33.6x2.2%
ST$6.1B66.9x11.2x1.6x1.6x5.7x5.6x11.1x9.3%
VPG
Vishay Precision
63.13
−4.66 (−6.87%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
VPG 12-month price
Precision Motion & Sensors
ALNT
Allient
102
−6.93 (−6.37%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ALNT 12-month price
Precision Motion & Sensors
BMI
Badger Meter
131
+5.05 (+4.01%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
BMI 12-month price
Precision Motion & Sensors
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
VPG$831.6M208.1x109.9x2.0x2.4x5.2x6.2x25.1x-0.9%
ALNT$1.0B43.0x24.3x1.9x1.8x6.0x5.7x15.4x3.9%
BMI$3.3B25.6x25.4x3.7x3.7x9.0x8.9x15.7x5.1%
ZBRA
Zebra Technologies
355
−11.77 (−3.21%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ZBRA 12-month price
IoT & Edge Connectivity
TER
Teradyne
378
−1.99 (−0.53%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
TER 12-month price
Semiconduct Equipment
KEYS
Keysight Technologies
319
−21.55 (−6.32%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
KEYS 12-month price
Instrumentation & Test Equipment
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
ZBRA$16.9B33.2x17.1x2.9x2.7x5.9x5.6x17.1x5.4%
TER$59.4B51.8x41.2x13.3x11.5x22.4x19.4x40.7x1.3%
KEYS$61.1B58.9x35.2x10.0x8.9x15.8x13.9x42.7x2.4%
ROK
Rockwell Automation
434
+0.04 (+0.01%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ROK 12-month price
Industrial Automation & Controls
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
ROK$48.2B40.5x32.8x5.4x5.3x9.9x9.8x28.9x3.1%

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
CGNXRevenue+16.7%+9.3%+9.2%
EPS+74.6%+19.5%+13.1%
NOVTRevenue+15.9%+15.9%
EPS+13.5%+18.2%
STRevenue+4.7%+4.6%+4.5%
EPS+10.4%+8.9%+8.5%
VPGRevenue+13.0%+7.7%+6.8%
EPS−16.9%+215.3%+72.0%
ALNTRevenue+7.3%+6.7%+6.4%
EPS+22.6%+21.2%+7.2%
BMIRevenue−1.9%+7.5%+7.0%
EPS−6.8%+9.3%+14.2%
ZBRARevenue+15.1%+5.7%+3.8%
EPS+31.3%+6.2%+7.0%
TERRevenue+67.0%+21.3%+24.5%
EPS+158.9%+27.6%+31.5%
KEYSRevenue+29.2%+11.4%+9.1%
EPS+43.7%+16.6%+12.7%
ROKRevenue+10.0%+5.5%+6.4%
EPS+31.4%+12.1%+12.0%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

The companies that supply the eyes, hands and nerves of automated machinery reported second-quarter results within a week of each other in early August. Almost all of them named the same new customer. It was not a robot maker.

The shipped-units test

Vishay Precision Group, which makes strain gauges, load cells and force transducers for steel mills, farm equipment and test rigs, has been the loudest of the group about humanoid robots — it announced a production nomination from its first humanoid customer and a possible ramp to thousands of robots a week by late 2026. In the quarter just reported, humanoid bookings were $500,000 and related sales $320,000, against $83.9m of total revenue. That is four-tenths of one percent.

What did grow at Vishay Precision was its Sensors segment, up 26% to $33.4m on record bookings of $48.1m — a book-to-bill of 1.44 — driven by AI infrastructure, semiconductor equipment makers, data-center fiber optics and defense. Weighing Solutions, the industrial and transportation half, grew 3% with bookings below shipments. The shares fell 24.5% on 5 August and another 10.7% the next session around the report, and are down 58% from a 30 June peak.

The same pivot, three times

Cognex, which sells machine-vision systems and barcode readers that inspect and locate parts on production and logistics lines, and which with Japan's Keyence holds close to half the global machine-vision market, posted record revenue of $291.3m, up 16.9%. Gross margin was 70.6% and operating income nearly doubled. Management raised semiconductors, electronics and packaging to double-digit growth on AI infrastructure spending, held automotive flat on European weakness, and described its data-center supply-chain business — server and rack assembly inspection — as growing more than 30% from a low-single-digit share of revenue. It called that business nascent. It is nonetheless the accelerant.

Novanta, a photonics and precision-motion supplier to medical and industrial equipment makers, grew 9% organically with gross margin up 100 basis points to 47%. Its generative-AI-linked applications — lithography, GPU drilling, advanced packaging — were about 17% of company revenue and grew roughly 25%. Novanta did book its first material servo-drive orders for humanoid training centers, a step past prototyping, but the segment carrying it is semiconductor capital equipment. Reported operating income fell 34.3% on deal costs from the $1.2bn Riverpoint Medical purchase, struck at about 19x estimated 2026 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization and funded with roughly $800m of gross debt, lifting pro forma leverage to 2.7x.

Sensata, an automotive and heavy-vehicle sensor maker with 16,700 employees, is the industrial-scale member. Its automotive revenue grew 1.8% organically to $545m against flat global production — roughly two points of content-per-vehicle outgrowth, achieved while S&P Global Mobility cut its 2026 forecast to 89.4m light vehicles from 91.9m. Aerospace and defense grew 10.9%. And Sensata has won five hyperscaler platform concepts this year, including a coolant-distribution-unit sensor ramping in early 2027; its industrial components revenue roughly doubled in the first half.

Where the prices disagree

This is not one trade. Allient, a motion-and-controls maker, gapped 18% higher on 6 August after orders rose 49% to a 1.31 book-to-bill. Badger Meter — a water-metering business, misplaced in any sensor grouping — lost 7% of revenue and fell 13.2% in one session on 22 July. Strip those two and Vishay Precision out and the rest are roughly flat over a month.

Most of what remains is one macro session: on 18 August the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high near 5.3% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell 5.4%. Novanta lost 12.5% over three sessions, Cognex 10.6%, Sensata 8.5%, with no company news.

The de-rating story does not survive the arithmetic. On consensus 2026 earnings of $1.68, Cognex's February price implied about 33x; today it is about 35x. Novanta sits at 39.0x forward, flat to February, and 33.6x enterprise value to EBITDA for roughly 7% organic growth. Sensata is the exception: 11.2x forward earnings, 11.1x EV/EBITDA, a 9.3% free-cash-flow yield, and a fourth straight organic-growth quarter with free cash flow up 61% to $186m and leverage cut to 2.4x from 3.0x — down 6.1% on 18 August alone and 11.7% over three months.

The setup

Where it stands — Data-center and semiconductor capex, not robotics, is the growth engine in industrial sensing; only Sensata's price has fallen while its numbers improved. Would confirm — Cognex third-quarter revenue lands in its $300-320m guide with semis and electronics again double-digit. Would invalidate — Humanoid-related bookings at Vishay Precision or Novanta exceed 3% of revenue, making robotics a real line item. Watch next — Third-quarter reports in late October; Sensata guided to $957-987m, sequentially flat to down. Valuation — Cognex 56.7x trailing and 35.4x forward against ~33x implied in February; Sensata 11.2x forward, 11.1x EV/EBITDA.