On 7 August the White House announced billions of dollars in loans, equity stakes and partnerships to build an American supply chain for critical minerals, describing it as the largest such package yet. Six companies that mine, refine or alloy those inputs jumped that day. Not one of them was named in it.

The money went elsewhere: a $1.4bn loan to battery-materials maker Sila Nanotechnologies, $400m for scandium, $150m to Niron Magnetics and $58m of Export-Import Bank financing for graphite and boron. Four of the six rose 8-15% in the session regardless.

A month built out of three days

Averaged evenly, the six gained 25.1% between 20 July and 17 August. Remove each name's two best sessions and the average collapses to 1.0%. Only REalloys, up 22.1% on that adjusted basis, and Perpetua Resources, up 19.6%, still stand; Tronox falls to -25.9% and 5N Plus to -16.8%.

The surviving days cluster on three dates. On 30 July the group averaged a 9.3% gain, the session after Energy Fuels said construction had begun on a heavy-rare-earth expansion at its White Mesa mill, with terbium and dysprosium circuits targeted for end-2027. On 7 August the average was 6.7%, on the federal announcement. On 14 August it was 4.1%, a theme-wide bid that followed MP Materials' quarterly report — a company outside this group entirely.

The metals themselves stayed put. Neodymium-praseodymium alloy was $133.67/kg in early August, barely changed from July. Dysprosium fell 11.6% month-on-month to $231.35/kg. Antimony sat at $51.80/kg, down 5.85% this year.

The one that ships

5N Plus, a Montreal producer of germanium, tellurium and bismuth compounds, semiconductor wafers and space-solar cells, is the only member with a profitable, accelerating income statement. Second-quarter revenue reached $122.4m, up 28% year on year, with net earnings of $19.7m. Its space-solar unit is sold out through 2027 and backlog sits at the company's 365-day reporting cap. Full-year adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) guidance of $100-105m was reaffirmed.

The shares fell 19.9% over the month and 21.9% over three months. Some of that is defensible: gross margin gave back more than four points to 30.3%, and management said recovery of metal costs lags by at least two quarters. At 45.6x forward earnings against 32.1x trailing, the stock has de-rated from roughly 74x at its high — the fall is doing rational work rather than opening a gap. Its US germanium refining expansion needs 18 to 24 months to build.

Everything else is a promise

5N Plus and Tronox produced $987m of the group's $1,019m of second-quarter revenue. The four "critical minerals" names together made $31.7m.

Tronox mines mineral sands and makes titanium-dioxide pigment for paint, plastics and paper, and has no artificial-intelligence content of any kind. Revenue rose 18.7% to $868m on record volumes, but gross margin fell to 6.3% and operating income swung to a $21m loss. It trades at 0.29x forward sales and 0.80x book, against $3.2bn of debt; its rare-earth processing plant is not scheduled to start until late 2029.

USA Rare Earth, which is building a sintered-magnet plant at Stillwater, Oklahoma, booked $5.8m in the quarter — all from a British alloys subsidiary, none from magnets — at a gross margin of -69.8%. Diluted shares went from 92.8m to 196.5m in a year, and a shareholder vote on 28 August would add 126.8m more. It trades at 32.3x forward sales.

Energy Fuels, which runs the only operating conventional uranium mill in the United States, is the clearest improver: revenue of $25.1m against $4.2m a year earlier, at a positive gross margin. But revenue fell sequentially from $35.8m and the operating loss widened to $30.6m. Perpetua Resources, whose sole asset is the Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho, has reported zero revenue in each of the past five fiscal years; consensus models $8m this year. REalloys made $804k of revenue against a $36.8m operating loss, and its annual revenue has shrunk for four consecutive years while the market value approached $1bn.

The chart disagrees with the month

All six trade below both their 50- and 200-day averages, and the downtrends began weeks before the bounce — Energy Fuels in early June, Tronox in July. Two got worse during the rally: USA Rare Earth's trend deteriorated further on 12 August, 5N Plus's rolled over on 13 August. Over three months the group is down 13.2%, and every member sits 35-56% below its 52-week high.

The setup

Where it stands — A 25% month resting on three catalyst sessions, inside a drawdown, with the underlying metals flat to lower.

Would confirm — USA Rare Earth booking first magnet revenue by end-2026 and closing the gap to $79.3m of consensus.

Would invalidate — Neodymium-praseodymium and antimony prices turning higher alongside signed offtake volumes at any of the four development names.

Watch next — USA Rare Earth's Serra Verde shareholder vote on 28 August 2026.

Valuation — 5N Plus at 45.6x forward earnings versus 32.1x trailing, down from about 74x at its high.