DK Street Journal

Snowflake's Market Value Tripled Since May on Financials It Last Reported in May

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.4

Three data-software companies carried this group's summer advance, and the bitcoin half of it contributed nothing. Over the month to 14 August, Elastic rose 39% and Snowflake 21%, while Strategy — the bitcoin treasury company formerly called MicroStrategy — fell 4.5% and bitcoin itself fell 2.4%.

Whether the businesses justify the move is unresolved, because only one of them has reported since spring. Datadog did, growth accelerating to 35.6%, and lost a fifth of its market value in a session when its largest artificial-intelligence customer said it would cut usage. Snowflake has printed no numbers since 27 May, yet its price-to-gross-profit has gone from 15.7x in early May to 33.7x. Elastic, the biggest gainer, is growing 16% and slowing — and is the only member still cheap, at 5.9x forward gross profit.

Strategy trades at 0.70x book, below its own coins.

SNOWDDOGESTCMSTRSTRKCWANBTC-USDBLSHBRAICORZMDBNETNOW
TickerCompanySegmentTrend · 13mo30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
SNOWSnowflakeData & Analytics Platforms🟢 Cont. Bull+22.3%+65.9%
DDOGDatadogData & Analytics Platforms🌱 Emerging Bull−1.2%+97.9%
ESTCElasticData & Analytics Platforms🌱 Emerging Bull+40.7%+10.4%
MSTRStrategyData & Analytics Platforms🔴 Cont. Bear−1.9%−74.4%
STRKStrategyData & Analytics Platforms🔴 Cont. Bear+11.1%−27.1%
CWANClearwater AnalyticsData & Analytics Platforms🟢 Cont. Bull+24.8%
Compared against · context, not the story
BTC-USDBTC-USD🔴 Cont. Bear−1.3%−46.3%
BLSHBullishBlockchain & Crypto🔴 Cont. Bear+8.8%−61.5%
BRAIBraiinBlockchain & Crypto🔴 Cont. Bear+0.5%−62.8%
CORZCore ScientificBlockchain & Crypto🟢 Cont. Bull−3.6%+38.9%
MDBMongoDBData Management & Analytics🟢 Cont. Bull+47.4%+102.7%
NETCloudflareNetwork & Application Delivery🟢 Cont. Bull+13.7%+56.0%
NOWServiceNowSpecialized Enterprise Solutions🔴 Cont. Bear+20.1%−30.5%

12-month price & trend

SNOW
Snowflake
329
−6.94 (−2.07%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SNOW 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
DDOG
Datadog
255
+6.66 (+2.68%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
DDOG 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
ESTC
Elastic
86.68
+7.52 (+9.50%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ESTC 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
SNOW$114.0Bn/m170.2x22.7x18.7x33.7x27.8xn/m1.0%
DDOG$90.9B513.8x104.6x22.9x20.8x28.8x26.1x348.6x1.3%
ESTC$9.0B24.5x26.7x5.2x4.5x6.8x5.9x122.4x3.6%
MSTR
Strategy
93.04
−1.96 (−2.06%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MSTR 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
STRK
Strategy
68.60
+1.22 (+1.81%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
STRK 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
CWAN
Clearwater Analytics
Price20d50d150d
CWAN 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
MSTR$30.8Bn/m61.8x61.8x91.4x91.4xn/m36.8%
STRK$20.4Bn/m61.8x40.9x91.4x60.5xn/m36.8%
CWAN$7.3Bn/m36.2x8.8x7.7x13.4x11.7x75.1x2.1%
BTC-USD
BTC-USD
63,046
−26.19 (−0.04%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
BTC-USD 12-month price
BLSH
Bullish
24.39
−2.25 (−8.45%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
BLSH 12-month price
Blockchain & Crypto
BRAI
Braiin
5.52
−0.12 (−2.04%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
BRAI 12-month price
Blockchain & Crypto
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
BTC-USD
BLSH$5.4Bn/m53.6x0.0x14.1x36.1x41.4x0.8%
BRAI$796.5M
CORZ
Core Scientific
20.18
+0.26 (+1.33%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CORZ 12-month price
Blockchain & Crypto
MDB
MongoDB
460
+1.55 (+0.34%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MDB 12-month price
Data Management & Analytics
NET
Cloudflare
316
−15.05 (−4.55%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NET 12-month price
Network & Application Delivery
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
CORZ$7.7Bn/m21.7x11.7x129.5x69.6x98.3x-6.1%
MDB$37.6Bn/m76.3x14.4x12.7x20.1x17.6x1.6%
NET$112.0Bn/m263.6x44.6x39.9x61.4x54.9x0.3%
NOW
ServiceNow
124
+0.57 (+0.47%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NOW 12-month price
Specialized Enterprise Solutions
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
NOW$128.2B77.0x30.5x8.7x7.9x11.6x10.6x38.4x3.6%

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
SNOWRevenue+29.4%+30.9%+25.7%
EPS+72.3%+59.4%+41.1%
DDOGRevenue+28.9%+21.5%+23.5%
EPS+20.9%+17.3%+23.1%
ESTCRevenue+17.6%+15.0%+14.5%
EPS+30.3%+28.2%+18.8%
MSTRRevenue+5.2%+1.9%+2.1%
EPS−145.8%−125.8%+2676.7%
STRKRevenue+5.2%+1.9%+2.1%
EPS−145.8%−125.8%+2676.7%
CWANRevenue+29.8%+18.1%+15.4%
EPS+23.6%+22.1%+12.3%
BLSHRevenue+36.2%+14.6%+6.9%
EPS+170.3%+57.8%+45.2%
CORZRevenue+83.8%+66.9%+22.3%
EPS−60.1%−172.6%+236.5%
MDBRevenue+23.1%+21.6%+17.9%
EPS+59.1%+27.1%+19.6%
NETRevenue+31.0%+27.9%+27.4%
EPS+31.0%+32.8%+38.3%
NOWRevenue+22.4%+18.7%+18.6%
EPS+17.1%+23.2%+21.4%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Only one company in this corner of data software has reported a quarter since the spring, and it was punished for it.

Datadog, which sells software that watches other companies' software and bills by the server monitored and the log stored, published second-quarter results on 6 August. Revenue reached $1.12bn, with growth accelerating to 35.6% year over year — a fourth consecutive quarterly acceleration, the clearest business improvement any of these names can show. Management raised full-year guidance to $4.45-4.47bn, above the $4.374bn analysts had modelled. The shares closed down 20.4% that day, at $229.29 against $288.13 the session before, because its largest customer — a nine-figure account running 17 Datadog products, which analysts widely believe to be OpenAI — will reduce usage from the third quarter. By 14 August the stock had recovered to $255.46, still 11% below where it went in.

That is what usage-based billing looks like when the meter turns down, and it is worth holding next to what the other two did on no numbers at all.

The rally without a print

Snowflake runs a cloud data platform that stores and queries corporate data and charges by the computing credit consumed. Its last set of financials, published on 27 May, showed product revenue of $1.33bn, up 34% and accelerating from 30% the prior quarter, with net revenue retention of 126% — existing customers spending a quarter more than a year earlier. Everything since has been product news rather than delivered revenue: the Cortex AI Gateway launched to govern enterprise AI agents, with Alteryx, Aembit and 1Password integrating in late July and early August.

The re-rating on those announcements is the largest thing in this story. Snowflake's market capitalization has gone from $49.3bn in early May to $114.0bn. Its price-to-gross-profit — the cleanest lens on a company still losing money at the operating line — has moved from 15.7x to 33.7x over the same stretch. The operating loss is genuinely narrowing, to -23.4% of revenue from -42.9% a year earlier, and consensus has fiscal-2027 revenue at $6.098bn, up 30.9%, slowing to about 26% thereafter. Growth is real; the price has moved considerably faster than it.

Elastic sells Elasticsearch, the open-source search and log-analytics engine that companies use for security monitoring and application troubleshooting. It rose 39.3% in the month, the most of any member, including six consecutive up sessions into 14 August worth 23%, on an upgrade to its security operations product. Strip out its two best days and the month is still +18.4%, so this is a trend, not a spike. But Elastic has not reported since February, and its revenue growth is flat to slowing in the mid-teens — 16.0% last quarter, with consensus at 15.0% and then 14.5%. Its trailing price-to-earnings of 24.5x is an artifact of a one-off gain that produced $435.9m of net income on $450.7m of revenue. On gross profit it is the cheapest name here by a wide margin: 5.94x forward, against Snowflake at 27.8x and Datadog at 26.1x. It is also the only one where a discount is still visible.

The bitcoin half went the other way

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds bitcoin funded by equity and preferred issuance, atop a shrinking legacy analytics software business that grew 6.9% last quarter to $122.4m. It fell 4.5% over the month and 50.2% over three months, against a 22.1% fall in bitcoin — roughly 28 points worse than the asset it exists to hold. Its market capitalization dropped below the market value of its coins for the first time on 27 June, and it now trades at 0.70x book. Diluted shares still rose 15.2% year over year, to 343.3m.

The financing has inverted. Strategy added $525m from at-the-market sales of common stock to a reserve now at $3.75bn, about 25 months of expected preferred dividends, while buying back 288,930 preferred shares for roughly $25.0m. Common holders are funding the preferred. That is why STRK, Strategy's perpetual preferred paying $8 a year per $100 of stated amount, rose 11.7% on the month while the common fell — a transfer down the capital structure, not coin exposure.

One name has left the group entirely: Clearwater Analytics, which ran investment-accounting software for insurers and asset managers, was taken private for $8.4bn at $24.55 a share on 25 June by Permira and Warburg Pincus.

The setup

Where it stands — The month's gain came from Snowflake and Elastic, neither of which has reported since spring; Datadog reported and fell. Would confirm — Snowflake's next quarter holding product revenue growth above 30% with net revenue retention at or above 126%. Would invalidate — Datadog's third quarter landing below its $1.135bn guidance floor as the large AI customer's usage rolls off. Watch next — Snowflake's fiscal second-quarter results, due in late August 2026. Valuation — Snowflake at 33.7x trailing and 27.8x forward gross profit, against 15.7x in early May; Elastic at 5.9x forward.