IonQ's Gross Margin Halved to 25% as Selling Quantum Machines Overtook Cloud Access
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Five listed quantum-computing companies have added roughly 15% in a month, on the argument that revenue is finally arriving. It is — but not the kind the story requires.
IonQ, the largest, booked $80m in the June quarter, up 287%, almost all of it from shipping physical machines and government-funded research rather than renting time on qubits. That mix cut its gross margin to 24.9%, from 56.5% three quarters earlier. Infleqtion's fell by half to 11%; Quantum Computing Inc. is now selling at a gross loss. Rigetti is the only one whose margin improved. D-Wave diverges hardest — revenue was flat year on year and down 67% in the first half, though bookings rose more than elevenfold.
And the month is thinner than it looks: strip each name's two best sessions and the advance turns negative, on volumes 57% to 78% below the spring.
| Ticker | Company | Segment | Trend · 13mo | 30D | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INFQ | Infleqtion | Quantum Computing | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +41.5% | −17.5% |
IONQ | IonQ | Quantum Computing | 🌱 Emerging Bull | +33.0% | +15.0% |
QBTS | D-Wave Quantum | Quantum Computing | ⚠️ Emerging Bear | +26.5% | +27.8% |
QUBT | Quantum Computing | Quantum Computing | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +15.5% | −43.3% |
RGTI | Rigetti Computing | Quantum Computing | ⚠️ Emerging Bear | +33.4% | +13.2% |
12-month price & trend
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INFQ | $2.8B | n/m | — | 127.0x | 67.1x | 830.2x | 438.4x | n/m | -0.3% |
IONQ | $17.3B | n/m | — | 70.1x | 60.5x | 193.1x | 166.8x | 8.8x | -2.8% |
QBTS | $7.8B | n/m | — | 625.8x | 181.6x | 974.9x | 283.0x | n/m | -1.5% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QUBT | $2.0B | n/m | — | 205.9x | 92.5x | — | — | n/m | -2.5% |
RGTI | $6.3B | n/m | — | 468.5x | 264.7x | — | — | n/m | -1.4% |
Consensus projections
| Ticker | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
INFQ | Revenue | +28.9% | +27.8% | +29.8% |
| EPS | +91.3% | −6.7% | +17.6% | |
IONQ | Revenue | +163.0% | +40.1% | +60.0% |
| EPS | −69.8% | +48.3% | +9.9% | |
QBTS | Revenue | +67.3% | +100.5% | +67.1% |
| EPS | +42.3% | +30.3% | −6.2% | |
QUBT | Revenue | +2374.9% | +52.8% | +78.1% |
| EPS | −19.5% | +29.5% | −5.3% | |
RGTI | Revenue | +212.3% | +122.1% | +44.5% |
| EPS | +14.3% | +0.4% | +6.8% |
Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.
The companies that build quantum computers for a living have started booking real revenue. IonQ, the biggest of them, reported $80m for the June quarter — more than the other four listed pure-plays combined, and its fifth consecutive record. But almost all of the growth across the group came from shipping hardware to national labs and universities, or from government research subcontracts. Very little came from customers renting time on qubits. That distinction is now showing up in the gross margin line.
The mix is the story
IonQ, based in College Park, Maryland, builds trapped-ion machines and sells access to them through Amazon's Braket, Microsoft's Azure Quantum and Google Cloud. Revenue rose 287% year on year, remaining performance obligations reached $485m, and full-year guidance went up to $280-290m. Gross margin went the other way: 56.5% in the December quarter, 23.8% in March, 24.9% in June. Operating margin was -421%. Management closed a $1.8bn all-stock purchase of chip foundry SkyWater Technology on 31 July, which the guidance excludes, and ended the quarter with $3.0bn of cash and investments. It also reported hard technical results — 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity without ground-state cooling, and error correction validated on its Tempo system.
Infleqtion, the renamed ColdQuanta, makes neutral-atom computers, quantum sensors and atomic clocks for defense primes and government labs from Louisville, Colorado. Revenue of $12.63m was up 116%, all organic, and it raised full-year guidance to about $43m while reaffirming 30 logical qubits this year. Gross margin fell to 11% from 21% in the prior quarter, and the operating loss was $30.6m. It listed publicly this year; diluted shares went from 118.2m in March to 219.7m in June.
Quantum Computing Inc., a 75-person firm in Leesburg, Virginia, sells optimization software, photonic chips and is building a thin-film lithium-niobate foundry. Revenue was $5.55m against $61k a year earlier — but gross margin was -21%, meaning it sold below cost. Backlog stood at about $42.5m, and management disclosed on the call that it had not grown over the preceding 40 days. Between 70% and 80% of revenue is government subcontracting.
Rigetti, a 163-employee superconducting-chip maker in Berkeley, is the exception. Revenue rose 185% to $5.14m and gross margin improved to 42.6% from 31.4%, on sales of its Novera on-premises processors. It holds $541.3m in cash with no debt, and has an $8.4m order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit system due in the fourth quarter. Its Cepheus system runs at 99.1% median two-qubit fidelity against a stated 99.5% target for year-end; management named coherence time, currently 25-30 microseconds, as the binding constraint.
D-Wave sells the past, books the future
D-Wave Quantum, of Burnaby, British Columbia, sells annealing machines and cloud access to them. Revenue of $3.08m was flat year on year, and first-half revenue of $5.9m was down 67% against a period containing a $13.7m system sale. Gross margin lost 8.4 points to 55.4%, and the adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization widened 85% to -$37.1m. The offsetting number is the order book: first-half bookings rose more than 1,120% to $35.5m, including a $20m system for Florida Atlantic University, and contracted future revenue rose 668% to $40.7m. Cash was $546.2m. Its gate-model roadmap runs to 100 logical qubits in 2032, and management does not expect meaningful gate-model service revenue before then.
The shared catalyst is federal. In May the Commerce Department signed letters of intent with nine companies for $2.013bn of CHIPS Act quantum incentives, taking minority equity stakes in each. D-Wave, Rigetti, Infleqtion and Quantinuum were each slated for roughly $100m; Rigetti's tranches of $19.9m, $22.2m and $18.5m are contingent on milestone completion.
What the buyer is paying
Forward price-to-sales runs 60.5x at IonQ, 67.1x at Infleqtion, 92.5x at Quantum Computing Inc., 181.6x at D-Wave and 264.7x at Rigetti. Those are lower than a year ago in the sense that matters — IonQ's market value rose about 65% while its forward revenue base grew 119%, Rigetti's rose 17% against 233% — so a genuine de-rating has happened. It has happened from levels where the de-rating barely registers. Infleqtion's thin margin puts it at 438x forward gross profit; Rigetti's and Quantum Computing Inc.'s price-to-gross-profit cannot be computed because gross profit is negative.
Per-share gains flatter the picture further. Diluted share counts rose 46.5% at IonQ, 58.9% at Quantum Computing Inc. and 26.0% at D-Wave over the year. Rigetti, at 11.7%, was the least dilutive.
The month, honestly
From 14 July to 14 August the five gained 15.5% on average, and 33.8% from the 24 July low. Remove each name's two best sessions and the month is negative — IonQ from +17.7% to -3.8%, Rigetti from +16.8% to -6.0%, Quantum Computing Inc. from +8.3% to -9.6%, Infleqtion from +23.1% to +0.8%. Average daily volume in the week to 14 August was 78% below the May-June run rate at D-Wave and 57% below at Infleqtion. Over twelve months, the four with a full year of trading are down 1.9% on average. This was a handful of headline days on falling participation, not steady buying.
The setup
Where it stands — Revenue is real and growing fast, but arrives as low-margin hardware and government subcontracts, priced at 60-265x forward sales. Would confirm — Gross margin stabilizing or rising sequentially at IonQ and Infleqtion in the September quarter. Would invalidate — Another quarter of margin compression, or D-Wave's $40.7m of contracted revenue failing to convert as guided. Watch next — Third-quarter results in early November; Rigetti's 99.5% two-qubit fidelity target is dated end-2026. Valuation — IonQ 70.1x trailing and 60.5x forward sales against consensus 2026 revenue of $285m; Rigetti 468.5x and 264.7x.






