DK Street Journal

NetApp's Earnings Multiple Doubled in 15 Weeks on 5% Revenue Growth

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.4

Three companies sold into the same AI build-out — a storage maker, a test-instrument maker and a small developer cloud — look like one advancing group. They are not. NetApp supplied nearly 60% of the month's gain, and it did so with no earnings report inside the window.

NetApp's fiscal 2026 revenue grew 5.4%, to $6.925bn. Its trailing price-to-earnings multiple has gone from 18.2x in early May to 32.2x, and at $207.08 the shares sit above Morgan Stanley's freshly raised $173 target. Keysight is the opposite case: revenue rose 31.5% last quarter, orders hit a record $2.05bn, and its multiple is unchanged since May — earnings grew into the price. DigitalOcean grew fastest and fell furthest, because its gross margin is going the wrong way.

Keysight reports on 18 August.

NTAPKEYSDOCNDELLHPESTXSMCINBISCRWVTERANETNTNXMSFTORCLCLSWDCKLACADI
TickerCompanySegmentTrend · 13mo30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
NTAPNetAppEnterprise Storage & Software🟢 Cont. Bull+29.7%+93.1%
KEYSKeysight TechnologiesInstrumentation & Test Equipment🟢 Cont. Bull+14.4%+119.0%
DOCNDigitalOceanCloud Infrastructure & Platforms🟢 Cont. Bull+11.0%+318.6%
Compared against · context, not the story
DELLDell TechnologiesEnterprise Storage & Software🟢 Cont. Bull+25.4%+258.9%
HPEHewlett Packard EnterpriseEnterprise Storage & Software🟢 Cont. Bull+30.1%+182.4%
STXSeagate TechnologyData Storage Devices🟢 Cont. Bull+30.6%+535.1%
SMCISuper Micro ComputerServer & Infrastructure Systems🔴 Cont. Bear+61.4%−12.2%
NBISNebiusCloud Infrastructure & AI🟢 Cont. Bull+61.7%+287.7%
CRWVCoreWeaveCloud GPU Computing🔴 Cont. Bear+44.4%+5.3%
TERTeradyneSemiconduct Equipment🟢 Cont. Bull+29.9%+283.6%
ANETArista NetworksCloud Networking🟢 Cont. Bull+18.0%+44.8%
NTNXNutanixCloud Infrastructure & Platforms🌱 Emerging Bull+19.3%−3.0%
MSFTMicrosoftCloud Infrastructure & Platforms🔴 Cont. Bear+23.5%−4.2%
ORCLOracleCloud Infrastructure & Platforms🔴 Cont. Bear+21.2%−38.9%
CLSCelesticaElectronic Manufacturing Services🟢 Cont. Bull+10.3%+71.4%
WDCWestern DigitalData Storage Devices🟢 Cont. Bull+9.0%+579.5%
KLACKLASemiconduct Equipment⚠️ Emerging Bear−7.1%−76.6%
ADIAnalog DevicesAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull+2.3%+69.9%

12-month price & trend

NTAP
NetApp
207
+2.54 (+1.24%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NTAP 12-month price
Enterprise Storage & Software
KEYS
Keysight Technologies
358
+1.37 (+0.38%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
KEYS 12-month price
Instrumentation & Test Equipment
DOCN
DigitalOcean
130
−5.37 (−3.97%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
DOCN 12-month price
Cloud Infrastructure & Platforms
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
NTAP$40.6B32.2x23.2x5.9x5.4x8.3x7.7x21.1x4.6%
KEYS$61.1B58.9x35.2x10.0x8.9x15.8x13.9x42.7x2.4%
DOCN$15.2B51.6x89.4x15.0x12.9x26.3x22.6x42.6x0.1%
DELL
Dell Technologies
491
−3.70 (−0.75%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
DELL 12-month price
Enterprise Storage & Software
HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise
58.71
−1.11 (−1.86%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
HPE 12-month price
Enterprise Storage & Software
STX
Seagate Technology
973
+57.02 (+6.22%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
STX 12-month price
Data Storage Devices
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
DELL$326.2B38.4x26.6x2.4x1.9x12.8x10.0x23.4x2.9%
HPE$79.2B54.9x17.5x2.0x1.8x6.2x5.4x23.7x5.0%
STX$178.4B73.9x53.5x16.2x14.8x39.0x35.7x53.6x1.5%
SMCI
Super Micro Computer
39.84
+0.68 (+1.74%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SMCI 12-month price
Server & Infrastructure Systems
NBIS
Nebius
278
+25.64 (+10.17%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NBIS 12-month price
Cloud Infrastructure & AI
CRWV
CoreWeave
105
−2.35 (−2.18%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CRWV 12-month price
Cloud GPU Computing
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
SMCI$25.8B10.9x12.3x0.7x0.5x6.1x4.5x8.2x-27.1%
NBIS$45.6B56.0x51.9x13.5x108.3x28.2x32.8x-5.4%
CRWV$46.6Bn/m7.5x3.7x10.8x5.3x25.7x-22.8%
TER
Teradyne
419
+8.27 (+2.01%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
TER 12-month price
Semiconduct Equipment
ANET
Arista Networks
199
−4.80 (−2.36%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ANET 12-month price
Cloud Networking
NTNX
Nutanix
66.61
−1.34 (−1.98%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NTNX 12-month price
Cloud Infrastructure & Platforms
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
TER$59.3B51.8x41.2x13.3x11.5x22.4x19.4x40.7x1.3%
ANET$256.4B63.4x50.6x24.3x20.6x38.6x32.7x49.8x2.0%
NTNX$18.0B65.3x30.4x6.5x5.6x7.5x6.5x53.3x4.3%
MSFT
Microsoft
495
+1.61 (+0.33%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MSFT 12-month price
Cloud Infrastructure & Platforms
ORCL
Oracle
151
−5.70 (−3.65%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ORCL 12-month price
Cloud Infrastructure & Platforms
CLS
Celestica
335
−26.29 (−7.28%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CLS 12-month price
Electronic Manufacturing Services
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
MSFT$3.7T27.5x25.2x11.1x9.4x16.3x13.9x18.2x1.8%
ORCL$433.0B25.3x18.7x6.4x4.8x9.8x7.3x17.4x-5.5%
CLS$38.5B34.5x29.5x2.5x1.9x21.3x16.2x25.7x1.3%
WDC
Western Digital
509
+17.03 (+3.46%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
WDC 12-month price
Data Storage Devices
KLAC
KLA
204
−5.65 (−2.70%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
KLAC 12-month price
Semiconduct Equipment
ADI
Analog Devices
389
+8.22 (+2.16%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ADI 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
WDC$166.1B25.6x48.3x14.1x12.9x31.1x28.4x31.1x1.7%
KLAC$261.9B54.4x36.6x19.3x14.5x31.5x23.6x46.2x1.4%
ADI$185.7B56.4x30.7x14.6x12.6x22.6x19.5x30.8x2.5%

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
NTAPRevenue+4.3%+9.2%+5.5%
EPS+10.4%+11.6%+10.5%
KEYSRevenue+29.2%+11.4%+9.1%
EPS+43.7%+16.6%+12.7%
DOCNRevenue+31.2%+53.5%+43.7%
EPS−29.0%+23.2%+60.4%
DELLRevenue+16.2%+53.6%+14.2%
EPS+27.3%+85.4%+21.0%
HPERevenue+30.3%+11.2%+5.7%
EPS+80.1%+17.6%+9.6%
STXRevenue+32.7%+35.9%+24.9%
EPS+86.9%+77.9%+48.0%
SMCIRevenue+77.7%+34.0%+19.7%
EPS+33.5%+15.5%+13.7%
NBISRevenue+512.2%+244.5%+86.2%
EPS+126.3%+35.2%−23.8%
CRWVRevenue+147.1%+98.0%+60.2%
EPS+194.1%−65.7%−325.8%
TERRevenue+67.0%+21.3%+24.5%
EPS+158.9%+27.6%+31.5%
ANETRevenue+40.0%+27.7%+21.9%
EPS+39.6%+25.5%+23.9%
NTNXRevenue+12.1%+12.8%+12.5%
EPS+10.9%+13.6%+16.3%
MSFTRevenue+18.0%+18.2%+19.6%
EPS+26.7%+15.4%+18.5%
ORCLRevenue+17.8%+33.2%+45.5%
EPS+25.3%+7.6%+35.6%
CLSRevenue+67.0%+69.3%+32.3%
EPS+90.2%+74.7%+34.3%
WDCRevenue+36.9%+37.2%+26.5%
EPS+106.2%+72.8%+48.0%
KLACRevenue+12.2%+33.9%+19.0%
EPS+14.5%+47.8%+21.0%
ADIRevenue+34.6%+16.0%+9.7%
EPS+59.8%+21.6%+15.0%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Three businesses that sell into the same artificial-intelligence build-out have been lumped together as one advancing group, and the arithmetic doesn't hold. NetApp, which sells all-flash storage arrays and the ONTAP software that runs them, plus first-party cloud storage services resold through Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services, rose 27.7% in the month to 14 August. Keysight Technologies, which makes the oscilloscopes, signal analysers and bit-error-rate testers engineers use to validate 800-gigabit and 1.6-terabit networking hardware, rose 10.9%. DigitalOcean, a developer-first cloud renting virtual machines and graphics-processing-unit (GPU) hours to start-ups and small businesses, rose 8.6%.

NetApp alone accounts for roughly 59% of that average. And nothing happened at NetApp inside the window: the company guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $7.325bn–$7.575bn back in May and does not report the July quarter until 2 September.

What NetApp actually did

Fiscal 2026 revenue, for the year ended April, was $6.925bn — growth of 5.4%. The trajectory inside that year improved genuinely, from 1.2% year-on-year in the first quarter to 12.5% in the fourth, and fourth-quarter operating income rose 52.6%. The company reported record all-flash array revenue of $1.2bn, up 18%, and record public-cloud revenue of $182m. It bought DataPelago in July to speed data processing for AI workloads.

What moved was the multiple, not the business. In early May the shares traded at 18.2x trailing earnings and 4.55x gross profit. They now trade at 32.2x and 8.29x. Forward gross profit is 7.68x — almost nothing has been priced out, meaning the market is not expecting the growth rate to change much. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock only to Equal-weight on 8 August and raised its target to $173, 16% below where the shares closed. A separate target lift to $210 on AI storage demand leaves the price essentially at the top of the range. Consensus has fiscal 2027 revenue up 9.2%.

Keysight: earnings grew into the price

Keysight's April quarter was its best ever. Revenue rose 31.5% to $1.717bn; gross profit rose 44.7%; operating income nearly doubled, and operating margin reached 23.7% against 15.8% a year earlier. Orders hit a record $2.05bn, up 56%, well above revenue, and first-half AI-related revenue already exceeded all of fiscal 2025.

The striking part is the valuation. Trailing price-to-earnings is 58.9x against 59.2x in early May — unchanged, on a market capitalization 6% larger. Forward earnings are 35.2x, a 40% compression that assumes the roughly 44% earnings growth consensus already models for the year ending October. This is a recent inflection rather than a trend: fiscal 2024 revenue fell 8.9%. Keysight reports the July quarter after the close on 18 August.

DigitalOcean grew fastest and fell furthest

DigitalOcean's June-quarter revenue accelerated to 28.6%, the fastest in years, and AI customer annual recurring revenue reached $234m, up 212%. Remaining performance obligations jumped to $894m from $71m as the company signed its first nine-figure commitments.

Gross profit grew only 18.1%. Gross margin fell to 55.0% from 59.9% as GPU and data-center depreciation scaled, and reported operating income fell 17.5%. The shares dropped almost 8% premarket on the beat and sit 28.3% below their six-month high, even as forward enterprise-value-to-revenue has fallen from about 15.5x in May to roughly 13x. Trailing earnings are 51.6x; forward earnings are 89.4x, because consensus expects reported earnings per share to fall 29% this year.

The month was borrowed

Shift the same 30-day window back two weeks, to July, and the three-name average flips to minus 3.2%, with DigitalOcean down 18.7%. The late-July selloff across data-center-linked names followed a shift in how AI capital spending is funded — incremental annual debt rose from 9% of hyperscaler capex in fiscal 2024 to 32% by mid-2026. August was the snap-back, and it was sector-wide: over the identical window Dell rose 18.9%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise 23.9% and Super Micro 48.2%. DigitalOcean and Keysight both lagged that group.

The setup

Where it stands — NetApp carries the month on a doubled multiple and 5% growth; Keysight carries the fundamentals on an unchanged one.

Would confirm — Keysight's 18 August print showing orders again above revenue and full-year revenue growth held near 29%.

Would invalidate — NetApp's 2 September quarter growing double digits with fiscal 2027 guidance raised above $7.575bn.

Watch next — Keysight fiscal third quarter, 18 August; NetApp first quarter, 2 September.

Valuation — NetApp 32.2x trailing, 23.2x forward, versus 18.2x in May; Keysight 58.9x trailing, 35.2x forward, versus 59.2x.