BioNTech, the Mainz company that made the COVID-19 vaccine sold with Pfizer, told investors on 4 August that it now expects 2026 revenue of €1.6-1.9bn, down from the €2.0-2.3bn it guided to in March. Roughly 80% of the cut was softer global COVID demand; Germany, management said, will work through doses it already holds this season. Second-quarter revenue fell 59.5% to about $122m, gross margin collapsed to 8.1% from 70.7% a year earlier, and the operating loss ran past $1bn.

The company is also, by one measure, barely a business at all in the market's eyes: it ended the quarter with €16.6bn of cash against a $23.4bn market capitalisation. Guido Oelkers takes over as chief executive from founder Ugur Sahin by 1 February.

The three that ship doses

Novavax, the Maryland maker of a protein-based COVID vaccine now commercialised by Sanofi, reported second-quarter revenue of $57m against $239m a year earlier, a 76% decline, and a $53m net loss. That followed a 79% decline in the first quarter. Consensus has revenue falling another 63% this year to $389m, then 30% again in 2027.

Valneva, the French specialty vaccine maker behind travel shots for Japanese encephalitis, cholera and chikungunya, has now posted four consecutive quarters of falling revenue. Second-quarter gross profit dropped 93% to about $2m as failed batches hit margins and its chikungunya vaccine carried nearly $11m of manufacturing cancellation fees. On its 13 August call management said the path to self-sustainability is "all about Lyme" — the vaccine it is developing with Pfizer.

The next day Valneva shares rose 29.0%, after the European Medicines Agency validated the Lyme filing on Phase 3 efficacy above 70%. Validation means the agency has accepted the dossier for review. It is not an approval and it ships nothing.

The three that rose

Vaxcyte, a California developer of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, is the group's cleanest riser: up 84.8% over twelve months, with a best single day of just 7.2%. It has also reported zero revenue in every quarter and every year on record back to 2021, burned $303m in the June quarter alone, and carries a free-cash-flow yield of minus 14.3% — roughly a seventh of its market value in cash each year. Its adult and infant trials are fully enrolled, with the first Phase 3 topline due in the fourth quarter. The entire move has been made ahead of any Phase 3 data. The user's own notes flag it as one of seven small- and mid-cap biotechs named in a July Barron's roundtable as a plausible takeout candidate.

Abivax, a Paris company with 80 employees and an $8.7bn market value, is not a vaccine business at all. Its lead asset is an oral drug for ulcerative colitis, and both doses met the primary endpoint in a Phase 3 maintenance trial reported on 1 June. The shares fell 44.1% on 2 June, rose 24.3% the next session and 38.6% on 30 June. A filing with the US Food and Drug Administration is planned for late in the fourth quarter.

Vir Biotechnology, built on COVID and hepatitis-delta antibodies, booked $239m of second-quarter revenue and an $80m profit from one event: Astellas paid $240m upfront plus $75m of equity for a prostate-cancer drug. The prior quarter's revenue was minus $29,000. Consensus has 2027 revenue down 57% once the payments roll off.

What the average hides

Remove each name's two best sessions of the past year and the group's average return falls from 34.0% to minus 4.0%, with the median at minus 16.4%. The S&P 500 tracker returned 20.4%. Over the past six months the six averaged minus 3.8% against the index's 13.9%, so the year was earned before February. The 30-day gain is Valneva's single session; the other five average minus 2.9%.

On valuation there is no split at all. Every member's forward multiple sits above its trailing one — BioNTech at 7.51x trailing sales against 12.29x forward, Vir 5.14x against 7.02x, Valneva 3.98x against 4.37x, Novavax 3.20x against 3.40x. The shrinking names got more expensive per dollar of revenue as they fell, because revenue fell faster. Vaxcyte prices at 335x forward sales, Abivax at more than 2,000x.

Only Abivax trades with its 50-day average clearly above its 200-day; BioNTech's has rolled under, and three sit flat. The policy backdrop has not helped: the US Health and Human Services Secretary replaced the CDC's vaccine advisory panel in 2025, a childhood schedule approved outside the usual process was stayed by a federal court in March, and the committee's charter was rewritten in April. Moderna, outside this group, is up 137% over twelve months on flu-vaccine progress. These six did not participate.

The setup

Where it stands — Every dollar of this group's twelve-month gain came from companies with no commercial product; the three with products are shrinking. Would confirm — Vaxcyte's fourth-quarter Phase 3 topline hits its primary endpoint, giving the $8.4bn valuation its first commercial anchor. Would invalidate — BioNTech lands 2026 revenue at or above the €1.9bn top of guidance, ending the COVID franchise's decline. Watch next — Vaxcyte OPUS-1 and Vir ECLIPSE 1 toplines, both due in the fourth quarter of 2026. Valuation — BioNTech 7.51x trailing sales rising to 12.29x forward; Valneva 24.3x trailing gross profit rising to 26.7x.