The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken more than 10 billion cubic feet a day of liquefied natural gas off the world market, about a fifth of global supply, most of it Qatari volumes from Ras Laffan. Asian spot cargoes were assessed at $21.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on 11 August. The American natural gas that feeds U.S. export plants went the other way, front-month Henry Hub falling 4.4% over the past 30 days to $2.73.

That gap is not, however, what U.S. exporters actually sell. Their long-term contracts are built as a fixed liquefaction fee of roughly $2.25-3.50/MMBtu plus about 115% of Henry Hub for the gas itself. Those fees are flat — Cheniere is guiding new Sabine Pass expansion deals at $2.50-3.00, NextDecade at "north of $2.50 but south of $3." So the only question that matters for the past month's advance is who keeps the spread, and who merely collects a toll while it widens.

The toll collectors

Cheniere Energy, which owns and operates the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals and markets the gas, is the toll. Management said in August that a $1 change in market margins moves full-year earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) by less than $50m, with under 1 million tonnes unsold for 2026. Its quarter was still strong on volume: revenue rose 26.3% year over year to $5.73bn, production rose 20%, and guidance was raised for a second consecutive quarter, to $7.90-8.40bn of EBITDA from $7.25-7.75bn. Corpus Christi Stage 3 was 98.4% complete at the end of June, running ahead of its guaranteed 2027 date. Cheniere bought back 5m shares for $1.1bn in the first half, cutting the diluted count 5.8%.

The price has moved faster than that. Cheniere trades at 10.0x trailing EV/EBITDA, against the roughly 7.3x recorded in May — a multiple expansion of about a third on a business whose contracted fees did not change. A forward earnings multiple is not usable here: consensus 2026 earnings per share are -$6.62 because of derivative marking, the same accounting that produced a $3.5bn net loss in the first quarter and a 74.8% operating margin in the second.

Cheniere Energy Partners, the master limited partnership that holds Sabine Pass, is the harder case. It was the best performer of the four, up 11.0% over 30 days across 13 of 23 sessions — a broad advance, not one headline day. The business did not keep pace. Revenue growth decelerated to 5.2% year over year from 20.4% the prior quarter, and the partnership reconfirmed rather than raised full-year distribution guidance of $3.10-3.40 per unit. Consensus has revenue falling 3.2% in 2027 and rising 4.3% in 2028; the next real step is 2029, when the Train 7 expansion signed with Bechtel arrives. It is the dearest name in the group on every lens available: 11.26x trailing EV/EBITDA, 7.80x price-to-gross-profit against Cheniere's 4.83x, and roughly $1.11bn of market value per million tonnes a year of operating capacity.

The spread taker

Venture Global, which builds and runs the Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines plants on the Gulf Coast, is the opposite structure. Its raised guidance of $8.7-9.1bn of EBITDA rests explicitly on a $12.50-13.50/MMBtu market liquefaction fee, and a $1 move is worth $180m-210m this year and $650m-700m in 2027. Revenue rose 47.6% to $4.58bn and operating margin widened to 47.2% from 33.5%. It signed over 2 million tonnes a year of new offtake with TotalEnergies, Vitol, EnBW and Atlantic-SEE, lifting its 2026 contracted position to 91% from 84%, while deliberately pivoting new capacity toward three-to-five-year deals that price at roughly twice 20-year rates.

It is also the cheapest — 10.3x trailing earnings falling to 9.2x forward, 4.40x EV/EBITDA — and it carries the group's one large unresolved liability. BP has won the liability phase of its arbitration over Calcasieu Pass and seeks damages above $1bn; the next hearing is in late November. Free cash flow is running at -27.5% of market value as Plaquemines and CP2 are built at once. Consensus expects revenue to fall 12.6% in 2027. Notably, the shares fell 5.2% on 11 August, the day the guidance was raised.

The one being marked down

NextDecade, building the Rio Grande terminal near Brownsville, Texas, has fallen 5.5% in a month, 21.2% in a quarter and 27.9% in a year — and none of it is a construction problem. Trains 1-2 are 74% complete, Train 3 past half, first LNG is due in the first half of 2027, and the second-quarter loss of $0.25 a share beat a $0.62 consensus. What is being marked is the claim, not the plant: zero revenue, a $65.4m quarterly net loss, negative book value, an equity entitled to only about 20.8% of Phase 1 distributions until an investor return hurdle clears, and 6.06x forward price-to-sales against Venture Global's 1.88x.

The setup

Where it stands — A spot-price spike has lifted three operating exporters whose long-term fees are unchanged, and left the pre-revenue builder behind. Would confirm — Cheniere Partners raising, not reconfirming, its $3.10-3.40 distribution guidance at the third-quarter report. Would invalidate — Asian spot prices returning toward $12/MMBtu, which would remove the earnings upgrades Venture Global's guidance is built on. Watch next — The BP damages hearing on Calcasieu Pass, scheduled for late November 2026. Valuation — Cheniere Partners at 11.5x trailing earnings and 17.6x forward; Venture Global 10.3x falling to 9.2x; Cheniere 10.0x EV/EBITDA versus about 7.3x in May.