DK Street Journal

Palo Alto's Stock Doubled While Its Gross Profit Grew 5% in Six Months

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.4

Enterprise software was sold in early 2026 on the theory that AI agents would eat software seats. Since mid-February seven of the names at the center of that trade have risen a median 80%, against 13.9% for the S&P 500 — and the businesses underneath grew trailing gross profit a median 13%.

Every one of the seven now costs more per dollar of gross profit than it did in February, from about 8% more at ServiceNow to 119% at Palo Alto Networks, whose gross profit grew 4.9%. Four of them did earn something: ServiceNow, Datadog, Cloudflare and Snowflake all posted faster revenue growth than a year ago. Okta is guiding to 9-10% growth for the year, and Rubrik has decelerated four quarters running. Four of the seven have published no financials since spring.

NOWDDOGNETSNOWPANWOKTARBRKSPY
TickerCompanySegmentTrend · 13mo30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
NOWServiceNowSpecialized Enterprise Solutions🔴 Cont. Bear+19.2%−28.5%
DDOGDatadogData & Analytics Platforms🟢 Cont. Bull−2.6%+100.8%
NETCloudflareNetwork & Application Delivery🟢 Cont. Bull+15.9%+57.2%
SNOWSnowflakeData & Analytics Platforms🟢 Cont. Bull+21.8%+65.2%
PANWPalo Alto NetworksCybersecurity & Threat Protection🌱 Emerging Bull+8.6%+117.0%
OKTAOktaIdentity & Access Management🌱 Emerging Bull−0.2%+60.2%
RBRKRubrikOther🌱 Emerging Bull+28.1%+19.1%
Compared against · context, not the story
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustAsset Management🟢 Cont. Bull+3.4%+21.7%

12-month price & trend

NOW
ServiceNow
124
+0.57 (+0.47%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NOW 12-month price
Specialized Enterprise Solutions
DDOG
Datadog
255
+6.66 (+2.68%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
DDOG 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
NET
Cloudflare
316
−15.05 (−4.55%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NET 12-month price
Network & Application Delivery
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
NOW$128.2B77.0x30.5x8.7x7.9x11.6x10.6x38.4x3.6%
DDOG$90.9B513.8x104.6x22.9x20.8x28.8x26.1x348.6x1.3%
NET$112.0Bn/m263.6x44.6x39.9x61.4x54.9x0.3%
SNOW
Snowflake
329
−6.94 (−2.07%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SNOW 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
PANW
Palo Alto Networks
384
−11.73 (−2.96%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
PANW 12-month price
Cybersecurity & Threat Protection
OKTA
Okta
147
−7.52 (−4.85%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
OKTA 12-month price
Identity & Access Management
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
SNOW$114.0Bn/m170.2x22.7x18.7x33.7x27.8xn/m1.0%
PANW$313.2B322.9x93.4x29.5x22.6x41.0x31.5x137.3x1.4%
OKTA$24.5B105.3x38.3x8.2x7.7x10.6x9.9x67.1x3.7%
RBRK
Rubrik
102
−2.86 (−2.72%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
RBRK 12-month price
Other
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
776
−0.48 (−0.06%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SPY 12-month price
Asset Management
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
RBRK$21.0Bn/m329.5x14.8x12.8x18.3x15.9xn/m1.5%
SPY$773.0B

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
NOWRevenue+22.4%+18.7%+18.6%
EPS+17.1%+23.2%+21.4%
DDOGRevenue+28.9%+21.5%+23.5%
EPS+20.9%+17.3%+23.1%
NETRevenue+31.0%+27.9%+27.4%
EPS+31.0%+32.8%+38.3%
SNOWRevenue+29.4%+30.9%+25.7%
EPS+72.3%+59.4%+41.1%
PANWRevenue+24.3%+21.1%+14.1%
EPS+15.3%+9.0%+17.6%
OKTARevenue+12.0%+10.0%+9.5%
EPS+24.3%+11.7%+10.8%
RBRKRevenue+48.7%+28.4%+21.5%
EPS−90.5%−278.4%+106.3%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Enterprise software spent the first half of 2026 being priced as a casualty of artificial intelligence. The argument was simple: if AI agents do the work that software licenses used to do, seat counts fall and revenue follows. Investors sold the sector hard enough that the episode acquired a nickname on this desk's own reading — the SaaSpocalypse. Then, from mid-February, they bought it back.

Seven companies at the intersection of software and the data-center buildout have risen a median 80% over six months: ServiceNow, which sells the workflow platform large enterprises run IT, HR and customer-service processes on; Datadog, which monitors cloud applications and bills by host and by log ingested; Cloudflare, which runs a global edge network selling security, content delivery and serverless compute; Snowflake, which sells data warehousing by the consumption credit; and three security names — Palo Alto Networks in firewalls, Okta in identity, Rubrik in backup and cyber-recovery. The S&P 500 rose 13.9% over the same stretch.

The businesses did not do that. Trailing gross profit — revenue less the cost of delivering the service, and the cleanest measure of scale when four of the seven report negative earnings — grew a median 13% over those six months. The best performer on that measure was Rubrik, at 21.1%. Every one of the seven now costs more per dollar of gross profit than it did in February: roughly 8% more at ServiceNow, 43% at Cloudflare, 55% at Rubrik, 57% at Snowflake, 59% at Okta, 77% at Datadog and 119% at Palo Alto.

What actually got better

Four of the seven have real operating news behind them. ServiceNow's revenue growth accelerated four quarters running, from 20.7% to 24.0%, reaching $3.99bn in the June quarter. Contracted revenue due within twelve months reached $13.2bn, up 21%, with subscription revenue 150 basis points above guidance, on a 98% renewal rate; annual contract value from AI products crossed $1bn. Yet management raised the full-year subscription guide by only $15m, to $15.770bn, and said roughly half the beat was an on-premise pull-forward from the third quarter. Gross margin fell to 70.7% from 77.5% a year earlier as the Moveworks and Armis acquisitions consolidated.

Datadog grew 35.6%, its fastest since 2022, with net revenue retention in the low 120s and free cash flow of $279m at a 25% margin. It then fell about 19% in one session on 6 August after disclosing that its largest AI customer renewed a nine-figure contract but will cut usage from the third quarter, taking guided growth down to 28-29%. That is consumption billing working in reverse.

Cloudflare accelerated from 30.7% to 35.9% and reported dollar-based net retention of 120%, up six points year on year, with remaining performance obligations up 38% and the full-year guide raised to about $2.87bn. It is also the most expensive name here, at 61.4x trailing gross profit and a 0.34% free-cash-flow yield.

Snowflake re-accelerated to 33.5% growth on $1.39bn of revenue — in a quarter reported on 27 May. It has published nothing since, while analysts raised targets through early August. Its operating margin is -23.4%.

Where the numbers don't follow

Palo Alto's headline 31.1% revenue growth in its April quarter came after three quarters near 15%, and gross profit rose only 21.5% as gross margin fell to 67.6% from 72.9%; operating income swung to -$183m. The step-change is acquisition arithmetic, not organic re-acceleration. The shares hit records after the Black Hat conference in August, and the company does not report again until 1 September.

Okta is decelerating — 12.7% to 11.2% across four quarters — and has guided the current fiscal year to 9-10% growth, its slowest since listing. It is the cheapest of the seven at 10.6x trailing gross profit, with a 3.7% free-cash-flow yield and expanding gross margin. Rubrik has slowed for four straight quarters, from 51.2% to 39.0%, though its operating margin improved to -13.6%; it has reported nothing since 4 June and is nonetheless the largest gainer of the past month.

The single session that carried the month

On 4 August all seven rose together, an average of 5.24% in one day — roughly 40% of the group's entire thirty-day gain. That was a market-wide rally that took the S&P 500 to a record, up 1.79%, with the main software exchange-traded fund adding nearly 5%. Strip that session out and Okta is down about 6% over the month and Palo Alto up about 3%.

The uptrends are also younger than they look. Cloudflare has held its 50-day average above its 200-day since 5 May, 68 trading sessions. ServiceNow only crossed on 12 August, after 148 consecutive sessions in a downtrend that ran from late October to May — and it remains the only one of the seven lower than a year ago, down 27%.

The setup

Where it stands — Seven software names have re-rated a median 80% in six months on gross profit that grew about 13%. Would confirm — Snowflake, Okta and Palo Alto printing revenue growth at or above their last reported rates in the next three weeks. Would invalidate — Datadog's third-quarter growth landing below the guided 28-29%, or Okta's fiscal-year guide staying at 9-10%. Watch next — Snowflake reports 25 August, Okta 26 August, Palo Alto Networks 1 September. Valuation — Price to trailing gross profit spans 10.6x at Okta to 61.4x at Cloudflare; forward sits below trailing for all seven.