Datadog Beat and Fell; MongoDB Ripped Without Reporting. The Rally Has the Cart Before the Horse.
Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.3
Eight companies that sell the plumbing of corporate computing — Cloudflare's edge network, ServiceNow's workflow platform, Datadog's monitoring software, Snowflake's and MongoDB's databases, Okta's corporate logins, Toast's restaurant tills and Akamai's delivery network — are all in uptrends at the same time for the first time in a year, and demand is genuinely improving: Cloudflare's net revenue retention reached 120%, six points better than a year ago, and ServiceNow's artificial-intelligence contract value passed $1bn against a $29bn backlog, up 22%.
The businesses support six of the eight. They do not support the biggest risers. MongoDB and Snowflake, the two largest gainers of the past month, have not reported since May; MongoDB's price-to-sales multiple moved from 9.6 to 14.4 times in a fortnight on analyst target increases alone. Okta grew 11.2% and trades at 39 times forward earnings.
Datadog, the one that beat and raised, fell — its largest customer is cutting usage.
| Ticker | Company | Segment | Trend | 30D | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NET | Cloudflare | Network & Application Delivery | 🟢 Cont. Bull | +19.2% | +66.6% |
AKAM | Akamai Technologies | Network & Application Delivery | 🟢 Cont. Bull | +4.0% | +68.1% |
DDOG | Datadog | Data & Analytics Platforms | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −5.7% | +100.3% |
MDB | MongoDB | Data Management & Analytics | 🟢 Cont. Bull | +40.6% | +129.0% |
NOW | ServiceNow | Specialized Enterprise Solutions | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +17.5% | −27.7% |
SNOW | Snowflake | Data & Analytics Platforms | 🟢 Cont. Bull | +22.4% | +70.7% |
OKTA | Okta | Identity & Access Management | 🌱 Emerging Bull | +0.1% | +70.4% |
TOST | Toast | Point-of-Sale & Hospitality | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +13.9% | −19.5% |
12-month price & trend
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NET | $115.4B | n/m | 271.5x | 45.9x | 41.1x | 63.3x | 56.6x | — | 0.3% |
AKAM | $18.2B | 43.9x | 18.7x | 4.2x | 4.0x | 7.4x | 7.2x | 20.2x | 3.5% |
DDOG | $88.7B | 500.9x | 102.0x | 22.3x | 20.3x | 28.1x | 25.5x | 339.9x | 1.3% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDB | $37.6B | n/m | 76.3x | 14.4x | 12.7x | 20.1x | 17.6x | — | 1.6% |
NOW | $127.2B | 76.4x | 30.2x | 8.6x | 7.8x | 11.5x | 10.5x | 38.2x | 3.6% |
SNOW | $115.1B | n/m | 171.8x | 22.9x | 18.9x | 34.0x | 28.1x | n/m | 1.0% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OKTA | $25.1B | 107.8x | 39.2x | 8.4x | 7.8x | 10.8x | 10.1x | 68.7x | 3.6% |
TOST | $20.1B | 41.7x | 25.0x | 3.0x | 2.7x | 11.1x | 10.1x | 35.4x | 2.9% |
Consensus projections
| Ticker | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NET | Revenue | +31.0% | +27.9% | +27.4% |
| EPS | +31.0% | +32.8% | +38.3% | |
AKAM | Revenue | +7.4% | +11.0% | +10.4% |
| EPS | −5.0% | +6.5% | +11.1% | |
DDOG | Revenue | +28.9% | +21.5% | +23.5% |
| EPS | +20.9% | +17.3% | +23.1% | |
MDB | Revenue | +23.1% | +21.6% | +17.9% |
| EPS | +59.1% | +27.1% | +19.6% | |
NOW | Revenue | +22.4% | +18.7% | +18.6% |
| EPS | +17.1% | +23.2% | +21.4% | |
SNOW | Revenue | +29.4% | +30.9% | +25.7% |
| EPS | +72.3% | +59.4% | +41.1% | |
OKTA | Revenue | +12.0% | +10.0% | +9.5% |
| EPS | +24.3% | +11.7% | +10.8% | |
TOST | Revenue | +21.7% | +18.3% | +17.4% |
| EPS | +34.7% | +24.7% | +24.2% |
Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.
Six of the eight infrastructure-software companies in this group reported faster revenue growth in their most recent quarter than in the quarter before, and in several cases the acceleration now runs four or five quarters deep. Cloudflare, which runs a global network that filters, caches and increasingly executes code for websites and applications, grew revenue 35.9% to $696.1m in the June quarter, up from 30.7% four quarters earlier. Datadog, which sells software that monitors whether servers and applications are working, grew 35.6% to $1.121bn — its fifth consecutive acceleration. ServiceNow, whose Now Platform automates corporate IT and HR workflows, grew 24.0% to $3.987bn, its fastest in at least two years. Snowflake's data-warehouse revenue rose 33.5%, and MongoDB, which sells the Atlas managed database, re-accelerated from an 18.7% trough to 25.2%.
That is the case for the group. The complication is which shares moved on it.
What the customers are actually doing
Retention is the cleanest read. Cloudflare's dollar-based net revenue retention — what existing customers spend this year versus last — reached 120%, up two points sequentially and six year on year, with remaining performance obligations of $2.73bn, up 38%. The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.86-2.87bn on 6 August, saying more than half the traffic crossing its network is now AI agents. Datadog's retention sits in the low 120s, with 750-plus AI customers of which 31 spend over $1m a year. ServiceNow's renewal rate is 98%, its backlog $29bn (+22%), and half of new business is now priced on consumption rather than seats — the specific bear case against it.
Toast, which sells point-of-sale terminals and payment processing to restaurants, added a record 9,500 net locations to reach about 180,000, grew revenue 23.1% to $1.908bn and lifted GAAP operating margin to 8.0% from 5.2%. It is the only member combining accelerating unit growth with expanding reported profit.
Verdict on the business: CONFIRMS for Cloudflare, Datadog, ServiceNow, Snowflake, MongoDB and Toast.
Where the tape ran ahead of the prints
The two biggest gainers of the past month did not report in it. MongoDB last presented results on 28 May and reports again on 1 September; its move traces to analyst target increases, including Oppenheimer's raise to $475 on 12 August, on the idea that vector search makes Atlas an AI-native database. This Desk recorded MongoDB at roughly 9.6 times sales on 29 July and called that fair; it is 14.4 times today, 12.7 times forward, against consensus revenue growth of 21.6%. Snowflake likewise has not printed since May, when the shares rose 36% in a session; its trailing price-to-sales has roughly doubled from the 12 times recorded in May notes to 22.9 times.
Okta is the clearest contradiction. Revenue growth has decelerated four straight quarters to 11.2%, consensus expects 10.0% next year, and the shares re-rated on upgrades citing demand for machine and agent identities rather than results. It trades at 39.2 times forward earnings. It reports 26 August.
Akamai is the reverse problem — cheap with cause. Revenue grew 5.4% and operating income fell 47% to $80.3m as gross margin slipped to 55.8%. Its cloud-computing arm grew 39% to $99m with $2.8bn of multiyear commitments signed, but capital spending is guided at 43-46% of revenue, buybacks are suspended and investors have marked the shares down 22% in three months on execution risk. It is the only member diverging outright from the group.
Verdict on valuation: CONTRADICTS for Cloudflare (41.1x forward sales, 56.6x forward gross profit), Snowflake, MongoDB and Okta, all within 4% of 52-week highs. CONFIRMS for ServiceNow — 30.2x forward earnings and 24.5x consensus 2027 earnings of $5.02, against a historical forward multiple above 40x — and for Toast at 25.0x forward earnings on 34.7% expected earnings growth. INCONCLUSIVE for Akamai at 18.7x forward earnings with 2026 earnings falling 5%.
The tape, briefly
All eight sat in uptrends on 13 August for the first time in the year, with 50-day averages above 200-day. Cloudflare has held its since 5 May, 67 trading sessions. ServiceNow and Toast crossed over only on 12 August, MongoDB on 10 August after flip-flopping four times in three weeks. This is not a rate trade: July consumer prices rose 0.1% for a 3.4% annual rate and futures price a meaningful chance of an October increase. It is a narrative reversal, with the main software exchange-traded fund up about 44% from its April low.
The sharpest fact in the group is that Datadog, which beat, raised guidance to $4.45-4.47bn and grew fastest of all, is the only meaningful decliner of the month — it fell as much as 19% on 6 August after saying its largest customer would cut usage from the September quarter. The market is paying for stories it has not yet seen tested and discounting one it has.
The setup
Where it stands — Six of eight businesses are accelerating, but the month's largest gainers re-rated without reporting. Would confirm — MongoDB's 1 September quarter showing revenue growth above 25% and Okta's 26 August print exceeding 11%. Would invalidate — Cloudflare retention slipping back below 118%, or ServiceNow's next quarter growing under 22%. Watch next — Okta reports 26 August; MongoDB 1 September; Akamai's cloud contracts begin revenue recognition in the fourth quarter. Valuation — Cloudflare 41.1x forward sales versus 25-28x in May; ServiceNow 30.2x forward earnings versus a 40x-plus history.









