For two years the companies that sell power-management chips, converters and microcontrollers to carmakers and factory-equipment builders have been working off a glut: distributors sitting on stock, fabs running half-empty, revenue falling. This reporting season, at nearly every one of them, that ended — and the shares fell anyway.

The cycle turned, in the disclosures

Microchip Technology, a Chandler, Arizona supplier of 8-, 16- and 32-bit microcontrollers and analog parts to car and factory customers, reported June-quarter revenue of $1.485bn, up 38.0% year on year against a trough of $1.076bn and a net loss twelve months earlier. Gross margin recovered to 63.2%. Management said bookings were the strongest in about four years, that distributor inventory has normalised at 25 days — the low end of its historical range, with no further correction needed — and guided September revenue to roughly $1.603bn, up 40.6% year on year.

Diodes Incorporated, a Plano, Texas maker of discrete transistors, rectifiers and timing chips, grew revenue 21.7% to $445.5m, its fifth straight quarter of double-digit growth, and guided the September quarter to about $510m, up 30%. Channel inventory is now below its normal 11-to-14-week band. ON Semiconductor, the Phoenix supplier of power switches, silicon carbide and image sensors, returned to growth at +9.2% after four quarters of double-digit declines, extended lead times from 27 to 32 weeks and reported book-to-bill significantly above 1 for multiple quarters.

NXP Semiconductors, the Eindhoven maker of microcontrollers, radar and near-field-communication chips for cars, grew industrial and internet-of-things revenue 38% to $755m and communications infrastructure 41%, and told investors explicitly that it sees no restocking — the growth is content per car and per machine, not distributors refilling shelves. Texas Instruments, the Dallas analog and embedded-processing house, grew industrial revenue 30% across all sectors and regions and noted its industrial business is still five to six points below its 2022 peak.

Verdict on the business: CONTRADICTS the tape at seven of nine names. Revenue is accelerating and margins are widening while prices fall. And this is not a general chip selloff — over the past 30 days Nvidia and Broadcom both rose while this group fell, even as the Philadelphia Semiconductor index sold off on China chipmaking advances and doubts about AI capital spending. Money left analog specifically.

Data-centre content is what separates them

Monolithic Power Systems, a 4,501-person designer of dense DC-DC power chips written into Nvidia's server reference designs, is leading. Second-quarter revenue hit a record $980.6m, up 47.6%, and enterprise data revenue rose 164.3% year on year; management raised its full-year floor for that segment from 85% to 130% growth. Microchip disclosed about $1bn of data-centre sales, up 69%, half from a dedicated unit and half from catalogue parts, with 14 PCI Express Generation 6 design wins. ON now expects its AI data-centre revenue to more than double this year.

NXP is the laggard on this axis and is being punished for it. UBS cut it to Neutral and trimmed its target to $270 from $305, citing China automotive inventory risk and AI-infrastructure revenue of just over $500m — roughly 3% of sales, against more than $1bn at several peers. Analog Devices, the Wilmington, Massachusetts converter and sensor maker, grew 37.2% last quarter with gross margin at 67.3% after six straight quarters of expansion; it is the last member yet to update and reports fiscal third-quarter results on 19 August.

The two that earned the decline

Cirrus Logic, whose revenue is dominated by audio and haptic chips for smartphones, has no meaningful data-centre content. It lowered its personal-computer expectations versus May on component shortages and delayed launches; its smart-meter chip only taped out in June, with market entry expected in 2028. Consensus has its fiscal 2028 earnings per share falling 7%.

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, at a $916m market value the smallest here, is the only shrinking, loss-making member: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $170.4m fell 3.5% with a net loss for the year. Its 15% drop on 13 August resolves cleanly as guidance — revenue and the adjusted loss both beat, but the September guide of $176m ±$10m missed on PC softness the company blamed on elevated memory prices. Diodes fell 9.3% the same day on no news of its own. Here the business CONFIRMS the move.

Valuation: INCONCLUSIVE across the group

The multiples do not point one way. NXP trades at 15.4x forward earnings against 19.7x trailing, 13.5x trailing enterprise value to EBITDA and a 5.1% free-cash-flow yield — the cheapest profitable name, with the fastest-growing industrial business. Microchip and ON sit at 24.3x and 25.5x forward against 107.6x and 51.6x trailing, because trailing earnings are at cyclical troughs. Texas Instruments and Analog Devices are at 32.2x and 30.7x on thin free-cash-flow yields of 2.1% and 2.5%; Texas Instruments' depreciation steps up roughly $400m in 2026 even as capital spending falls. Monolithic Power remains dearest at 50.2x forward and 65x trailing EV/EBITDA — though down from about 67-70x in May, because estimates rose faster than the price fell.

One shared risk sits underneath all of it: DRAM contract prices have roughly doubled and analog vendors have pushed through price increases — Analog Devices raised 15% across all lines in February. Cost inflation is flattering revenue and squeezing the consumer end.

On the tape, the split is the story: over 30 days NXP fell 17.6% and Cirrus 11.6% while Monolithic Power and Diodes rose — a 20-point spread, not a uniform drift.

The setup

Where it stands — Orders and utilisation turned up at seven of nine analog chipmakers this season while their shares fell. Would confirm — Microchip delivering the guided ~$1.603bn September quarter with distributor inventory still near 25 days. Would invalidate — NXP's Q3 landing below the $3.75bn ±$100m guide, or book-to-bill slipping under 1.0 at ON. Watch next — Analog Devices reports fiscal Q3 results at 7:00 a.m. Eastern on 19 August 2026. Valuation — NXP 15.4x forward vs 19.7x trailing; Monolithic Power 50.2x forward vs 83.1x trailing.