DK Street Journal

Fastly's 29% Four-Day Rally Has Run Past Every Analyst's Target

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.3

Two of six mid-sized software makers reported in the first week of August and both raised full-year guidance. Fastly, which runs an edge network that delivers and secures websites, grew revenue 23.3% to $183.3m, its fastest in four years, with net revenue retention at 117% versus 104% a year earlier. Five9, which sells cloud contact-centre software, grew subscription revenue 14% and lifted its full-year artificial-intelligence growth outlook to at least 60% from more than 40%.

The business explains the move at those two and at Q2 Holdings, whose digital-banking subscription backlog reached $2.8bn. It does not at Elastic or GitLab, neither of which reported that week and both of which guide to slower growth this year — 14.6% and 16.5% respectively.

The tension: Fastly's price-to-sales multiple went from 4.99x to 6.50x in two weeks, and its price now sits above the median of post-earnings analyst targets.

FSLYESTCQTWOLSPDGTLBFIVNTEAMTWLONETDDOGHUBS
TickerCompanySegmentTrend30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
FSLYFastlyCloud Infrastructure & Platform🟢 Cont. Bull+48.2%+333.4%
ESTCElasticData & Analytics Platforms🌱 Emerging Bull+21.9%+4.1%
QTWOQ2Financial Services Software🔴 Cont. Bear+16.8%−18.1%
LSPDLightspeed CommerceMarketplace & Commerce Platforms🌱 Emerging Bull−0.9%−14.6%
GTLBGitLabDeveloper Tools & DevOps🌱 Emerging Bull+21.8%+3.8%
FIVNFive9Communications & Collaboration🌱 Emerging Bull+19.9%+25.8%
Compared against · context, not the story
TEAMAtlassianDeveloper Tools & DevOps🔴 Cont. Bear+58.7%−3.4%
TWLOTwilioCommunications & Messaging Platforms🟢 Cont. Bull+13.0%+159.0%
NETCloudflareNetwork & Application Delivery🟢 Cont. Bull+17.2%+56.2%
DDOGDatadogData & Analytics Platforms🟢 Cont. Bull−6.7%+88.2%
HUBSHubSpotCustomer Experience & CRM🔴 Cont. Bear−3.4%−50.4%

12-month price & trend

FSLY
Fastly
29.69
+0.91 (+3.16%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
FSLY 12-month price
Cloud Infrastructure & Platform
ESTC
Elastic
76.10
−0.80 (−1.04%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ESTC 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
QTWO
Q2
61.50
−2.27 (−3.56%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
QTWO 12-month price
Financial Services Software
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
FSLY$4.5Bn/m55.9x6.5x6.0x10.6x9.8xn/m0.9%
ESTC$8.0B21.8x23.8x4.6x4.0x6.0x5.3x108.7x4.0%
QTWO$3.9B42.3x21.4x4.6x4.4x8.1x7.7x26.5x5.2%
LSPD
Lightspeed Commerce
10.27
−0.22 (−2.05%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
LSPD 12-month price
Marketplace & Commerce Platforms
GTLB
GitLab
40.75
−1.13 (−2.70%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GTLB 12-month price
Developer Tools & DevOps
FIVN
Five9
30.93
−3.02 (−8.89%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
FIVN 12-month price
Communications & Collaboration
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
LSPD$1.4Bn/m17.0x1.2x1.1x2.8x2.6x73.5x2.6%
GTLB$6.9Bn/m50.2x6.9x6.2x8.0x7.1xn/m3.8%
FIVN$2.4B41.1x9.6x2.0x1.9x3.7x3.5x14.6x8.3%
TEAM
Atlassian
153
−1.97 (−1.28%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
TEAM 12-month price
Developer Tools & DevOps
TWLO
Twilio
247
−9.33 (−3.65%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
TWLO 12-month price
Communications & Messaging Platforms
NET
Cloudflare
316
+5.55 (+1.79%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NET 12-month price
Network & Application Delivery
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
TEAM$39.2Bn/m24.5x3.4x5.3x4.0x6.3x223.1x5.5%
TWLO$38.8B34.0x44.8x7.0x6.7x14.4x13.8x106.6x2.9%
NET$110.3Bn/m259.5x43.9x39.3x60.5x54.1x0.3%
DDOG
Datadog
243
−8.73 (−3.47%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
DDOG 12-month price
Data & Analytics Platforms
HUBS
HubSpot
210
−10.39 (−4.71%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
HUBS 12-month price
Customer Experience & CRM
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
DDOG$92.8B524.5x106.8x23.4x21.2x29.4x26.7x355.8x1.2%
HUBS$11.3B77.9x16.7x3.3x3.1x4.0x3.7x37.3x6.8%

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
FSLYRevenue+20.6%+11.9%+10.6%
EPS+870.1%+11.5%+13.1%
ESTCRevenue+17.6%+15.0%+14.5%
EPS+30.3%+28.2%+18.8%
QTWORevenue+11.8%+10.1%+10.5%
EPS+22.9%+20.7%+43.5%
LSPDRevenue+13.5%+3.6%+13.0%
EPS+7.8%+26.7%+49.0%
GTLBRevenue+25.6%+17.8%+15.3%
EPS+40.9%−8.9%+25.2%
FIVNRevenue+10.0%+10.0%+9.4%
EPS+10.5%+16.0%+13.6%
TEAMRevenue+24.7%+13.4%+15.9%
EPS+55.5%+10.5%+18.0%
TWLORevenue+16.0%+10.1%+10.4%
EPS+19.1%+16.3%+15.7%
NETRevenue+31.0%+27.9%+27.4%
EPS+31.0%+32.8%+38.3%
DDOGRevenue+28.9%+21.5%+23.5%
EPS+20.9%+17.3%+23.1%
HUBSRevenue+18.5%+14.9%+14.0%
EPS+37.2%+22.5%+18.5%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

On 5 August, Fastly — a Technology company whose network sits between websites and their users, delivering pages, video and application code, and increasingly filtering attacks on the way through — told investors it had grown June-quarter revenue 23.3% to $183.3m, its fastest rate in four years and an acceleration from 19.8% two quarters earlier. Gross margin hit a record 65.8% on the company's adjusted measure, up 680 basis points, and it swung to $27m of operating income. Net revenue retention, which measures spending by existing customers, reached 117% against 104% a year earlier — the fifth consecutive quarterly improvement. Full-year guidance went up to $732–746m.

A day later Five9, which runs the software call-centre agents use to handle phone, chat and email queues, reported subscription revenue up 14% — a third straight quarter of acceleration — with revenue from its artificial-intelligence products up 78% to an annual run rate above $150m. Management raised its full-year AI growth outlook to at least 60% from more than 40% and lifted total 2026 revenue guidance to $1.266–1.272bn, disclosing a Fortune 100 contract worth $100m over five years that ramps in 2027.

That matters beyond the two companies. The bear case that has crushed this end of the software market all year — named the "SaaSpocalypse" by a Jefferies trader in February — holds that revenue billed per human seat shrinks as autonomous agents replace the humans. Contact centres are the most exposed category there. Five9's seat-linked subscription line accelerated anyway.

The four that did not report

The other four names rose largely on one session. On 7 August, Atlassian gained 34%, Twilio 27% and Cloudflare 9% as investors rotated out of chip stocks back into enterprise software; the same day CNBC catalogued the wreckage the rotation was reprieving — Airtable sold to Bending Spoons for under $1.3bn against a near-$12bn peak valuation, HubSpot down 19% in a day, Datadog down 19%. Elastic rose 7.4% and GitLab 9.2% on no company news.

Elastic sells the search and analytics engine behind log monitoring at large enterprises, now also used to store the vectors that power AI retrieval. Fiscal-2026 revenue was $1.739bn, up 17.3%; its cloud line grew 20% and committed remaining performance obligations accelerated to 20%, but guidance for the year now underway implies about 14.6% growth — deceleration, with margin expansion the offset. GitLab, which sells the platform development teams use to plan, build and ship software, guided fiscal 2027 to $1.112–1.118bn against $955.2m delivered — roughly 16.5% growth after 25.8%. Its transcript does contain the cohort's cleanest anti-deflation datapoint: customers are buying seats for project managers and designers who now write code through agents, at the engineer price.

Q2 Holdings, which supplies online and mobile banking software to community and regional banks, reported on 29 July: subscription annual recurring revenue of $826m up 15%, backlog of $2.8bn up 17%, adjusted EBITDA up 37% with margin 510 basis points wider, eight enterprise wins, guidance raised, debt repaid and $350m added to buyback capacity. Its shares are still down 18% over twelve months.

Lightspeed Commerce, which sells point-of-sale and payments systems to independent retailers, restaurants and golf courses, is the odd one out — flat over the month. Reported revenue grew 5.8%, but organic growth was 17%, payment volume rose 20% organically, and full-year adjusted EBITDA is guided to $75–95m, decisively positive, alongside a $65.1m share repurchase.

Do the numbers justify it

Business verdict: CONFIRMS at Fastly, Five9 and Q2 Holdings, where guidance rose on disclosed acceleration; INCONCLUSIVE at Elastic and GitLab, which are guiding slower and moved on rotation; and CONTRADICTS at Lightspeed, where profitability inflected and the tape ignored it.

Valuation verdict is close to the inverse. Fastly's price-to-sales multiple has gone from 4.99x to 6.50x in a fortnight (6.04x forward), and after the print analyst targets clustered at $25–$32 against a $29.69 close. Management flagged roughly $10m of the quarter as episodic and noted only a quarter of World Cup matches fall in the current period; top-ten customers, now 37% of revenue, supplied 87% of sequential growth while the rest of the base grew 12%. GitLab is the group's richest at 6.86x trailing sales and 50.2x forward earnings on 16–17% guided growth. Against that, Five9 trades at 9.6x forward earnings with an 8.3% free-cash-flow yield, Q2 Holdings at 42.3x trailing earnings compressing to 21.4x forward, Elastic at 5.28x forward gross profit with a median analyst target near $106.50, and Lightspeed at 1.04x book value.

The tape agrees with none of this cleanly. Fastly fell 13.5% the session after its results, then rose 29.3% over the following four sessions — a delayed re-rating, not an earnings reaction. Five9 jumped 19.8% on 7 August and gave back 8.9% by 12 August. Over twelve months the group's headline gain is entirely Fastly's 333%; the median member is up 4%.

The setup

Where it stands — Three of six raised guidance on disclosed acceleration; two rose on a single rotation day without reporting.

Would confirm — Fastly's September quarter holding revenue growth above 18% despite the flagged World Cup timing headwind.

Would invalidate — Fastly net revenue retention slipping below 117%, or Five9 subscription growth falling back under 12%.

Watch next — Elastic's first fiscal-2027 quarter, due late August, against the 14.6% full-year guide.

Valuation — Fastly 6.50x trailing sales versus 4.99x two weeks ago; Five9 9.6x forward earnings versus 41.1x trailing.