DK Street Journal

Zebra and Digi Gapped Up 20%-Plus on Earnings — and Still Look Overpriced Next to Ituran

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.3

Zebra Technologies, which makes the barcode scanners and rugged handheld computers used in warehouses and shop floors, reported second-quarter revenue up 20.4% on 4 August and lifted full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $20.75-$21.25 a share from $18.30-$18.70. Two days later Digi International, which sells cellular routers and device-management software for industrial equipment, posted record annual recurring revenue of $191m, up 52%.

The businesses justify the enthusiasm; the prices have run past it. Zebra's reported growth was only 9.2% organic once the Elo Touch acquisition is stripped out, the quarter included a one-off $73m tariff recovery, and the shares now sit 15% above the Street's $331 mean target. Digi trades at 64x trailing earnings.

The third name, Israeli vehicle-tracking firm Ituran, grew revenue 18.8% and trades at 14.9x forward earnings — and fell over the same month. It reports on 12 August.

ZBRADGIIITRN
TickerCompanySegmentTrend30D1Y
ZBRAZebra TechnologiesIoT & Edge Connectivity🌱 Emerging Bull+43.0%+22.1%
DGIIDigi InternationalIoT & Edge Connectivity🟢 Cont. Bull+26.1%+157.0%
ITRNIturan Location and ControlIoT & Edge Connectivity🟢 Cont. Bull−5.5%+35.0%

12-month price & trend

ZBRA
Zebra Technologies
381
+2.06 (+0.54%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ZBRA 12-month price
IoT & Edge Connectivity
DGII
Digi International
83.52
+1.06 (+1.29%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
DGII 12-month price
IoT & Edge Connectivity
ITRN
Ituran Location and Control
52.73
+0.26 (+0.49%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ITRN 12-month price
IoT & Edge Connectivity

Valuation & fundamentals

TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
ZBRA$18.2B35.8x18.4x3.1x2.9x6.3x5.9x18.3x5.0%
DGII$3.2B64.3x31.7x6.2x5.9x9.7x9.2x32.6x4.3%
ITRN$1.0B17.3x14.9x2.8x2.6x5.6x5.2x9.4x7.1%

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
ZBRARevenue+15.1%+5.7%+3.8%
EPS+31.3%+6.2%+7.0%
DGIIRevenue+24.4%+8.6%+4.9%
EPS+28.9%+15.3%+11.5%
ITRNRevenue+14.1%+6.5%+11.1%
EPS+21.9%+8.6%+11.6%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Zebra Technologies, the Illinois maker of barcode scanners, radio-frequency identification (RFID) readers and the rugged handheld computers that warehouse and store workers carry, told investors on 4 August that the device replacement cycle its customers had deferred since the pandemic is finally landing. Revenue rose 20.4% year over year to $1.56bn, gross margin reached 53.0% from 44.6% two quarters earlier, and operating income grew 75.4% — more than three times the rate of sales.

Management lifted full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $20.75-$21.25 a share from May's $18.30-$18.70 and raised the sales growth guide to 14-16%, citing demand, pricing realisation and supply-chain execution. Two days later Digi International, a Minnesota firm selling cellular routers, embedded radio modules and the cloud software that manages fleets of connected machines, reported record annual recurring revenue of $191m, up 52%, with a record 29.1% adjusted EBITDA margin and full-year revenue guided to $529-533m.

What the numbers do and don't say

Both accelerations are real and sequential. Zebra's year-over-year revenue growth ran 5.2%, 10.6%, 14.3% and 20.4% across four quarters; Digi's ran 8.8%, 17.9%, 25.1% and 29.0%. On the first verdict — does the business explain the move — both CONFIRM.

The qualifiers matter. Zebra's 20.4% was 9.2% organic, with the Elo Touch acquisition supplying the rest, and two of the seven points of full-year organic growth is pricing, implying underlying volume nearer 5%. The quarter carried a one-time $73m recovery of tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which helped offset $20m of higher memory-chip costs; DRAM contract prices rose a record 90-95% in the first quarter of 2026 as capacity shifted to artificial-intelligence servers. Zebra says it mitigated $90m of that through pricing, above its $60m target. Its transport and logistics business, meanwhile, was flat, with large deployments starting only in 2027. Digi's growth is acquisition-assisted — Jolt Software and Particle — and management said the hyperscaler opportunity for its Opengear console servers is not in guidance.

On valuation the verdict flips to CONTRADICTS. Zebra trades at 35.8x trailing and 18.4x forward earnings, against roughly 14x forward when this desk's own July note valued it at $315; the earnings guide rose 13.5% at the midpoint while the multiple did about twice that work. The Street's mean target is $331.33, with Barclays at $410 but Citi at $306 on a Neutral rating. Digi is at 64.3x trailing, 31.7x forward and 32.6x enterprise value to EBITDA. Consensus already models the deceleration behind the refresh wave: Zebra 2027 revenue +5.7% and earnings +6.2% against 2026's +15.1% and +31.3%; Digi 2027 revenue +8.6% against +24.4%.

The one that didn't move

Ituran Location and Control, an Azor, Israel company that sells stolen-vehicle-recovery and fleet-tracking subscriptions to insurers, dealers and drivers, is diverging from both. Its revenue growth also accelerated four quarters running — 2.3%, 10.5%, 12.8% and 18.8%, to $102.7m — with operating margin steady at 21.5%. It added 40,000 net subscribers to reach 2.67m, reiterated a 160,000-180,000 full-year target, grew subscription revenue 21% to $75.4m and declared a $10m quarterly dividend. It trades at 17.3x trailing and 14.9x forward earnings, 9.4x EV/EBITDA and a 7.1% free-cash-flow yield — under a third of Digi's EV/EBITDA — and fell 5.8% over the month. That is a POSSIBLE DISLOCATION, with two caveats: only one analyst supplies its forward estimates, and it has yet to report. Second-quarter results are due 12 August, so the entire decline is positioning into an unreported quarter.

The tape agrees with the split rather than the group. Zebra's 50-day average crossed above its 200-day only this month, after running in a downtrend as recently as May; Digi has held an uptrend at every checkpoint this year; Ituran lost its uptrend inside the past thirty days. Nearly all of the trio's month came from two sessions — Zebra's 26.5% gap on 4 August and Digi's 14.5% gap on 6 August. Strip those and the rest of the month is about 4%.

The setup

Where it stands — Two of three edge-hardware makers re-rated on strong quarters; the third accelerated as fast and de-rated into results. Would confirm — Ituran reporting Q2 subscription revenue growth above 18% with net adds tracking the 160,000-180,000 full-year target. Would invalidate — Zebra's organic growth slipping below 5% next quarter, or Digi's ARR growth falling under 27%. Watch next — Ituran's Q2 2026 results on 12 August 2026; Zebra's Q3 report in late October. Valuation — Zebra 35.8x trailing/18.4x forward versus ~14x in July; Digi 64.3x/31.7x; Ituran 17.3x/14.9x.

Sources (44)

Also checked against 22 company-fundamentals reads, 9 price-database queries, 6 research notes, 1 prior recommendation in the author's own data.

Originating hypothesis

category gradual advance within sustained bull · category: Technology > Communication Equipment > IoT & Edge Connectivity

The unstarred-but-Zebra-flagged "Technology > Communication Equipment > IoT & Edge Connectivity" segment (ZBRA, DGII, ITRN — the barcode scanners, rugged mobile computers, cellular IoT gateways and vehicle-telematics subscriptions that sit at the physical edge of enterprise networks) is the cleanest still-gradual tech advance in this loop's universe sample and a layer this desk has never examined, having written the connectivity story only through data-center interconnect, optics and EMS rack assembly: it is up 21.2% over the past 30 days at genuinely gradual intensity on top of a +71.4% twelve-month year the snapshot still tags still bullish, with no member anywhere in the violent mover lists and not one name appearing in any band-transition table on any horizon — so the question is whether businesses paid per scanned device, per connected asset and per monthly telematics subscription still have runway from CURRENT prices on validatable fundamentals (Zebra's Asset Intelligence & Tracking versus Enterprise Visibility segment growth, its order backlog, book-to-bill and how much of the move is the long-delayed post-COVID warehouse device refresh finally landing, plus tariff and memory-cost pass-through into gross margin; Digi International's recurring-revenue/ARR mix and IoT Solutions attach; Ituran's subscriber net adds, ARPU and the currency and Israel-exposure drag on a cash-generative dividend payer), or whether a 21% month is one large-cap earnings re-rating doing the arithmetic for a three-name average inside the same late-July rotation out of semiconductors into anything hardware-light this desk has already documented repeatedly.