Five of Nine Software Stocks Rose on Rotation, Not Results
Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.3
In three sessions in early August, four makers of enterprise infrastructure software reported. Three raised full-year guidance: Twilio lifted 2026 organic revenue growth to 13-13.5% from 9.5-10.5%, Dynatrace raised fiscal-2027 revenue to $2.306-2.320bn on annual recurring revenue up 17% to $2.136bn, and JFrog raised its year to $648-652m with cloud revenue up 53%. Atlassian posted its first profitable year but guided next year's subscription recurring-revenue growth down to 18% from 23%.
The businesses explain those four moves. They do not explain the other five — Nutanix, Samsara, BILL, Veeva and Salesforce last reported between 7 May and 4 June, and Nutanix's most recent quarter grew just 10%. Those five rose in the same late-July week that money left semiconductors.
Valuation is where the group breaks apart: JFrog trades at 93.9 times forward earnings, Salesforce at 13.6.
| Ticker | Company | Segment | Trend | 30D | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TWLO | Twilio | Communications & Messaging Platforms | 🟢 Cont. Bull | +10.6% | +161.0% |
BILL | Bill.com | Fintech & Digital Finance | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +12.0% | +22.7% |
DT | Dynatrace | Other | 🌱 Emerging Bull | +9.8% | +6.4% |
IOT | Samsara | IoT & Connected Operations | 🌱 Emerging Bull | +11.0% | +25.8% |
FROG | JFrog | Developer Tools & DevOps | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −2.7% | +112.3% |
NTNX | Nutanix | Cloud Infrastructure & Platforms | 🌱 Emerging Bull | +13.5% | −8.9% |
VEEV | Veeva Systems | Life Sciences Software & Data | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +17.1% | −16.8% |
TEAM | Atlassian | Developer Tools & DevOps | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +55.0% | −6.4% |
CRM | Salesforce | Customer Experience & CRM | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +12.6% | −16.7% |
12-month price & trend
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TWLO | $36.6B | 32.1x | 42.2x | 6.6x | 6.3x | 13.6x | 13.0x | 97.9x | 3.4% |
BILL | $4.8B | n/m | 14.3x | 3.0x | 2.6x | 3.7x | 3.2x | 41.5x | 8.0% |
DT | $14.3B | 96.3x | 24.7x | 6.8x | 6.2x | 8.4x | 7.6x | 43.7x | 4.0% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IOT | $23.6B | 400.0x | 57.4x | 13.6x | 11.7x | 17.8x | 15.3x | 241.2x | 1.0% |
FROG | $10.8B | n/m | 93.9x | 18.1x | 17.1x | 23.2x | 22.0x | n/m | 1.6% |
NTNX | $16.9B | 61.4x | 28.6x | 6.2x | 5.3x | 7.1x | 6.1x | 50.3x | 4.6% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VEEV | $37.4B | 40.0x | 25.4x | 11.3x | 10.3x | 15.1x | 13.7x | 27.4x | 4.4% |
TEAM | $39.2B | n/m | 24.5x | 3.4x | 5.3x | 4.0x | 6.3x | 223.1x | 5.5% |
CRM | $157.9B | 22.2x | 13.6x | 3.7x | 3.4x | 4.8x | 4.4x | 13.6x | 9.3% |
Valuation & fundamentals
Consensus projections
| Ticker | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
TWLO | Revenue | +16.0% | +10.1% | +10.4% |
| EPS | +19.1% | +16.3% | +15.7% | |
BILL | Revenue | +13.2% | +12.2% | +12.0% |
| EPS | +26.0% | +27.2% | +20.5% | |
DT | Revenue | +18.9% | +15.5% | +14.8% |
| EPS | +22.8% | +17.7% | +15.3% | |
IOT | Revenue | +28.9% | +25.9% | +19.7% |
| EPS | +129.2% | +40.4% | +27.9% | |
FROG | Revenue | +20.6% | +17.5% | +19.4% |
| EPS | +20.4% | +17.6% | +27.4% | |
NTNX | Revenue | +12.1% | +12.8% | +12.5% |
| EPS | +10.9% | +13.6% | +16.3% | |
VEEV | Revenue | +16.3% | +15.1% | +12.0% |
| EPS | +22.7% | +14.1% | +10.7% | |
TEAM | Revenue | +24.7% | +13.4% | +15.9% |
| EPS | +55.5% | +10.5% | +18.0% | |
CRM | Revenue | +9.3% | +11.1% | +9.4% |
| EPS | +17.4% | +20.2% | +10.4% |
Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.
Three of these nine companies raised their full-year revenue outlook within thirty-six hours of each other, and a fourth reported the first profitable year in its history while telling investors that next year would be slower. That is the actual news inside a month that also happened to include a violent rotation out of semiconductor stocks and into anything software-shaped.
What the four that reported actually said
Dynatrace, which sells software that watches applications, servers and cloud infrastructure for large enterprises and flags failures before users notice, opened the week on 5 August. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) — the run-rate value of subscriptions in force — reached $2.136bn, up 17%, with organic net-new ARR up 41% and new-logo ARR growth above 160%, exceeding the high end of guidance on every metric. It landed 122 new customers at roughly $285,000 each, and log management now runs at $200m of annualised consumption, double two quarters ago. The company raised fiscal-2027 revenue guidance to $2.306-2.320bn and adjusted earnings to $1.97-1.99 a share. The blemish: reported revenue growth has decelerated three quarters running, to 16.2%, and net revenue retention sits at 110%.
Twilio, whose programming interfaces let developers embed text messages, voice calls and email inside their own apps and which bills by the message rather than the seat, reported record quarterly revenue of $1.5bn, up 22%, and raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 18-18.5% from 14-15%. Organic growth accelerated to 17%, dollar-based net expansion improved to 116% from about 110%, and free cash flow was $353m. Messaging revenue grew 28%, voice 20%. This is the cleanest business acceleration in the group — four straight quarters of faster growth, from 14.3% to 22.0%.
JFrog, which sells Artifactory, the repository where software teams store and version the compiled components of their applications, beat estimates by 12.5% on earnings with revenue up 28.7% to $163.8m and cloud revenue up 53%. Customers paying more than $1m a year rose 59% to 97, net dollar retention hit 121%, and non-GAAP operating margin improved 470 basis points to 19.9%. The unfinished part: 47% of revenue is still self-managed software installed in customers' own data centres, and it grew 9%.
Atlassian, the Sydney-based maker of Jira and Confluence project-tracking tools sold per user seat, beat with adjusted earnings of $1.87 against $1.50 expected and cloud revenue growth accelerating to 31%. Fiscal-2026 revenue grew 26% to $6.572bn with a first positive full-year operating income of $10.4m. But it guided fiscal 2027 to 18% subscription ARR growth, down from 23%, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Verdict A on the business: CONFIRMS for these four. Growth accelerated at three of them and guidance rose at three.
The five that have said nothing since spring
Nutanix, whose software bundles virtualisation, storage and networking so companies can run private clouds on ordinary servers, last spoke on 27 May; its April quarter grew revenue just 10%, decelerating from 13.5% two quarters earlier, though operating income rose 51%. Samsara, which bolts dash cameras and sensors onto customer truck fleets and sells the data back as software, last reported 4 June: revenue up 30.5%, but a GAAP operating margin of 1.5%. BILL, which automates bill payment for small businesses and their accountants, last reported 7 May with revenue up 13.5% and its first positive operating income, $4.6m. Veeva, which sells document and trial software exclusively to drugmakers, grew 16.3% with a 30.9% operating margin — the best in the group — and spoke on 3 June. Salesforce, the largest name here at $158bn, grew 13.3% with operating income up 25%, its third straight quarter of acceleration.
For these five, Verdict A is INCONCLUSIVE: the last data is two to three months old, and none of it landed inside the price window.
Valuation splits the group in three
Verdict B: CONTRADICTS at the top end, CONFIRMS at the bottom. JFrog trades at 93.9x forward earnings, 17.1x forward sales and 22.0x forward gross profit on a 1.6% free-cash-flow yield — up from roughly 16x sales nine sessions earlier. Samsara is at 57.4x forward earnings and 11.7x forward sales while consensus has growth slowing from 25.9% to 19.7%. Twilio's forward multiple expanded from about 33x to 42.2x on the guidance raise. At the other end, Salesforce is 13.6x forward and 22.2x trailing earnings with a 9.3% free-cash-flow yield, sitting at only the 38th percentile of its own year's range; BILL is 14.3x forward with an 8.0% yield. In between: Dynatrace 24.7x forward, Veeva 25.4x, Atlassian 24.5x, and Nutanix at 28.6x forward against 61.4x trailing — with consensus modelling 12.8% then 12.5% revenue growth, meaning no acceleration from Broadcom's VMware repricing is priced in. That is consistent with independent work finding Nutanix wins displacement deals at 40-48% discounts and no vendor demonstrating mass displacement of regulated production workloads.
The tape, and when it moved
Eight of nine names rose over the past month and all nine over three months, so this is not two earnings pops carrying an average. But the dates are unforgiving: the four sessions to 28 July supplied 8.8 percentage points of the average and 7 August supplied 10.2 — together essentially the whole month. On 28 July the SOXX semiconductor fund fell 4.80% while enterprise software rallied, one day after the Dow rose more than 500 points as investors rotated out of chips. Across July, Workday rose 31% and Adobe 22% on rotation rather than company news. Nor is this a rate story: the Fed has cut nothing in 2026 and the target range is 3.5-3.75%, with markets pricing possible hikes, which removes the float-income tailwind from BILL's case.
One durable pattern survives the decomposition. Over twelve months the four billed by usage — Twilio, Dynatrace, JFrog, Nutanix — averaged +44.7% while the five billed by seat or subscription averaged -8.1%. Over the past month that ordering reverses. The pricing-model thesis is a year-long fact, not a July one.
The setup
Where it stands — Four of the nine reported strong quarters into the move; five rose on rotation with data last updated in May.
Would confirm — Nutanix reporting revenue growth above 12% and Samsara holding ARR growth near 30% when they next report.
Would invalidate — Dynatrace's ARR growth slipping below 15% or JFrog's cloud growth falling under its raised 41-43% baseline.
Watch next — Nutanix, Samsara, BILL, Veeva and Salesforce all report fiscal quarters between late August and early September.
Valuation — JFrog 93.9x forward earnings and Samsara 57.4x against Salesforce 13.6x forward, 22.2x trailing.










