DK Street Journal

Credit Fears, Not Lost Contracts, Repriced AI Data Centers — and the Two Best Operators Barely Moved

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.2

A late-July scare in the loan market for artificial-intelligence infrastructure — not a lost customer — knocked down the six listed companies that build and rent out computing halls. Credit insurance on CoreWeave, the largest renter of graphics-chip capacity, implied roughly a 50% chance of default over five years, and lenders forced an extra 1.00-1.25 percentage points of interest and hard covenants onto a $2.6bn loan.

The damage sorted by balance sheet, not demand. GDS Holdings and VNET Group, the two Chinese landlords that are the largest genuine operators here, barely moved: GDS grew revenue 23.6% last quarter with gross margin at 33.6% from 23.7%, and trades at 15.6 times earnings; VNET is at 9.6 times enterprise value to EBITDA, the lowest of the six. Applied Digital added roughly $20bn of signed leases in three months but holds $5bn of debt against $42.4m of quarterly adjusted earnings.

Three of the six have no such contracts at all — and one of those is priced as if it does.

APLDGDSVNETKEELSHAZWYFICRWVDLREQIXNBISWULFVRTIRENCORZ
TickerCompanySegmentTrend30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
APLDApplied DigitalData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🟢 Cont. Bull−6.2%+108.3%
GDSGDSData Center & Cloud Infrastructure⚠️ Emerging Bear−2.4%−13.3%
VNETVNETData Center & Cloud Infrastructure⚠️ Emerging Bear−8.5%−8.6%
KEELKeel InfrastructureData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🟢 Cont. Bull−16.6%+215.4%
SHAZSharonAIData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🌱 Emerging Bull−33.3%+57.1%
WYFIWhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary SharesData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🌱 Emerging Bull−36.0%+67.4%
Compared against · context, not the story
CRWVCoreWeaveCloud GPU Computing🔴 Cont. Bear+2.0%−35.1%
DLRDigital Realty TrustData Center & Colocation🟢 Cont. Bull+7.4%+17.4%
EQIXEquinixData Center & Colocation🌱 Emerging Bull−0.8%+36.6%
NBISNebiusCloud Infrastructure & AI🟢 Cont. Bull−14.4%+167.6%
WULFTeraWulfBitcoin Mining🟢 Cont. Bull−22.3%+216.3%
VRTVertivData Center Power & Thermal🟢 Cont. Bull−14.6%+95.0%
IRENIRENDigital Assets & Blockchain🟢 Cont. Bull+0.2%+129.4%
CORZCore ScientificBlockchain & Crypto🟢 Cont. Bull−10.6%+44.6%

12-month price & trend

APLD
Applied Digital
29.22
−0.08 (−0.27%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
APLD 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
GDS
GDS
31.98
+0.14 (+0.44%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GDS 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
VNET
VNET
7.33
+0.32 (+4.56%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
VNET 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
APLD$8.3Bn/m14.4x10.1x64.3x45.1xn/m-33.4%
GDS$6.3B15.6x4.7x3.6x0.5x14.2x2.0x13.8x-3.1%
VNET$1.9Bn/m1.3x0.2x6.0x0.9x9.6x-45.5%
KEEL
Keel Infrastructure
3.88
+0.06 (+1.57%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
KEEL 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
SHAZ
SharonAI
49.79
−2.36 (−4.53%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SHAZ 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
WYFI
WhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary Shares
24.63
−0.08 (−0.32%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
WYFI 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
KEEL$2.5Bn/m12.7x22.5xn/m-13.2%
SHAZ$512.9Mn/m334.0x3.4x52.8xn/m-12.0%
WYFI$1.0Bn/m11.9x7.9x27.6x18.3xn/m6.0%
CRWV
CoreWeave
90.67
+4.46 (+5.17%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CRWV 12-month price
Cloud GPU Computing
DLR
Digital Realty Trust
194
+1.24 (+0.64%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
DLR 12-month price
Data Center & Colocation
EQIX
Equinix
1,043
−10.24 (−0.97%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
EQIX 12-month price
Data Center & Colocation
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
CRWV$46.6Bn/m7.5x3.7x10.8x5.3x25.7x-22.8%
DLR$71.7B89.3x74.1x10.5x10.2x76.3x74.1x25.8x1.9%
EQIX$102.9B66.8x60.6x10.5x10.0x20.3x19.4x27.9x1.3%
NBIS
Nebius
188
−3.03 (−1.59%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NBIS 12-month price
Cloud Infrastructure & AI
WULF
TeraWulf
17.08
−0.60 (−3.42%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
WULF 12-month price
Bitcoin Mining
VRT
Vertiv
272
−2.77 (−1.01%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
VRT 12-month price
Data Center Power & Thermal
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
NBIS$45.6B56.0x51.9x13.5x108.3x28.2x32.8x-5.4%
WULF$8.7Bn/m52.8x28.4x93.6x50.4xn/m-34.9%
VRT$142.5B91.1x57.7x13.1x10.3x36.2x28.5x61.1x1.6%
IREN
IREN
41.23
+2.96 (+7.73%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
IREN 12-month price
Digital Assets & Blockchain
CORZ
Core Scientific
21.01
−0.04 (−0.19%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
CORZ 12-month price
Blockchain & Crypto
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
IREN$13.5B948.3x17.9x4.8x33.4x9.0x32.1x-13.4%
CORZ$7.7Bn/m21.7x11.7x129.5x69.8x98.3x-6.1%

Valuation & fundamentals

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
APLDRevenue+98.7%+92.4%+149.3%
EPS−24.3%+6.9%−104.0%
GDSRevenue+11.2%+11.0%+18.0%
EPS−13.3%−75.5%+48.9%
VNETRevenue+19.9%+21.0%+18.6%
EPS−37.9%−261.0%+74.7%
KEELRevenue−59.1%+12.9%+81.9%
EPS+59.7%−46.8%+71.4%
SHAZRevenue+9846.3%+823.7%+76.6%
EPS−44.7%+7.9%+24.6%
WYFIRevenue+63.5%+110.2%+54.2%
EPS+2.2%−134.8%+157.8%
CRWVRevenue+147.1%+98.0%+60.2%
EPS+194.1%−65.7%−325.8%
DLRRevenue+16.0%+11.1%+14.1%
EPS−28.5%−3.7%+25.8%
EQIXRevenue+11.0%+10.7%+11.2%
EPS+16.6%+9.5%+9.5%
NBISRevenue+512.2%+244.5%+86.2%
EPS+126.3%+35.2%−23.8%
WULFRevenue+72.8%+212.8%+76.3%
EPS−5.6%−89.8%−376.7%
VRTRevenue+35.2%+25.8%+19.4%
EPS+55.6%+33.8%+25.8%
IRENRevenue+38.3%+300.2%+91.3%
EPS−1004.3%−68.5%−1007.5%
CORZRevenue+83.8%+66.9%+22.3%
EPS−60.1%−172.6%+236.5%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

The selling that hit the companies that build and rent out data centres in late July did not start with a cancelled contract. It started in the credit market. On 28 July, insurance against default by CoreWeave — the rental provider of graphics-processor capacity that is the single largest tenant in this business — blew out to roughly 855 basis points, implying about a 50% chance of default within five years. Days later, lenders to a $2.6bn CoreWeave facility extracted 100-125 basis points of extra spread plus maintenance covenants including a 1.35x debt-service coverage test before committing money. Every company that borrows to pour concrete around someone else's chips was repriced within 48 hours.

The average is not a business

Grouping these six together produces a 30-day drop of 17.4% — a number that mostly measures the two smallest. SharonAI (-34.6%) and WhiteFiber (-33.0%) are worth about 7% of the group's roughly $20.6bn of combined value yet supply about a quarter of the arithmetic. Weighted by size, the decline is 9.1%. GDS fell 2.6%.

The twelve-month picture splits by geography, not by industry: Keel Infrastructure +203%, Applied Digital +105%, WhiteFiber +52%, against GDS -14.2% and VNET -10.1%. The wider complex sorted the same way over the past month — the investment-grade landlords Digital Realty (+9.9%) and Equinix (+2.6%) rose while leveraged developers TeraWulf (-25.2%), Vertiv (-14.3%) and Nebius (-13.2%) fell. This is a funding event.

The two that got cheaper while improving

GDS Holdings, which develops carrier-neutral data centres across mainland China and rents space to cloud and internet firms, has revenue growth accelerating from -2.6% a year ago to +8.6% and then +23.6% last quarter. Gross margin reached 33.6% against 23.7% a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA rose 47.2% and net new bookings hit a record 200 megawatts, with full-year guidance of RMB12.4-12.9bn reaffirmed. It trades at 15.6x trailing earnings, 13.75x enterprise value to EBITDA and 1.37x book — profitable, which nothing else here is. The offsets are structural: higher leverage than US peers, and the standing US delisting and audit-compliance overhang on Chinese issuers.

VNET Group, the Beijing hosting operator, is the cheapest in the group at 9.58x EV/EBITDA. Wholesale utilisation rose to 75.7% with mature sites at 93.8%, 516MW under construction at an 85.8% pre-commitment rate. The catch is cash: guided capex of RMB10-12bn is roughly three times guided EBITDA, and trailing free cash flow yield is -45.5%.

For both: the business CONTRADICTS the move. Neither participated in the AI re-rating, and neither has deteriorated.

Contracts versus the cost of funding them

Applied Digital, a Dallas developer that leases whole campuses to computing tenants, is where demand and funding collide. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 183.7% to $611.3m, and 1,410MW of contracted load now represents about $36bn of revenue over initial 15-year terms, including three leases signed in one quarter worth roughly $20bn to a single investment-grade hyperscaler. Against that: $5bn of debt versus $4.2bn of cash and only $42.4m of adjusted EBITDA, quarterly gross margin down to 15.7% from 42.5%, and free cash flow yield of -33.4%. Price-to-sales has halved from about 24.8x at the 52-week high to 14.4x trailing, 10.1x forward. Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE — the backlog is real and so is the funding gap.

The other three lack the contracts. Keel Infrastructure, the former bitcoin miner Bitfarms, saw revenue fall 44.7% to $37.0m at a -71.1% gross margin and has not signed a single computing lease, targeting three by year-end with revenue only from 2027. Its forward price-to-sales of 22.5x exceeds its trailing 12.7x because consensus has 2026 revenue falling 59%. WhiteFiber, spun out of Bit Digital last August, is decelerating — 68.7% to 57.9% to 30.7% growth, revenue down sequentially, operating margin from +10.5% to -50.3% — while consensus still models +63.5% this year. SharonAI, 25 employees, earned $1.57m in 2025 and trades at 334x trailing sales against announced but unstarted contracts including a $373m five-year cloud deal. For these three the fundamentals CONFIRM the de-rating.

On the tape, all six topped on 22-23 June and lost most of the ground in two sessions on 28-29 July, then rebounded hard on 30 July — WhiteFiber +27.6%, Applied Digital +20.5%. That is a liquidity flush, not a demand signal.

The setup

Where it stands — A credit scare, not lost demand, repriced six data-centre operators; the two profitable Chinese ones fell least and grew most.

Would confirm — GDS holding revenue growth above 20% and reaffirming RMB12.4-12.9bn guidance; VNET utilisation rising above 75.7%.

Would invalidate — Applied Digital raising equity or secured debt above its 7.000% 2031 coupon, or a tenant deferring contracted megawatts.

Watch next — Second-quarter results from GDS and VNET, and Keel's stated deadline of three computing leases signed by 31 December 2026.

Valuation — GDS 13.75x trailing EV/EBITDA and 15.6x earnings; VNET 9.58x; Applied Digital 14.4x trailing sales, 10.1x forward, from 24.8x at its high.