Bitmine Immersion Technologies employs three people. Its business is holding ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency — 5.8 million coins, roughly 4.8% of circulating supply, about 85% of it staked to earn yield — alongside a small bitcoin-consulting and equipment-leasing operation. Over the past month that single $10.7bn company accounted for close to 70% of the gain across the five crypto assets and crypto-linked equities on this list. Strip it out and the group is roughly flat: ether up 7.1%, Strategy up 5.7%, bitcoin up 1.6%, Coinbase down 3.4%.

That split matters because the story attached to the month — a bottom forming across the asset class — is only true of two of the five names.

The coins have thawed; the equity proxies mostly haven't

Bitcoin's 50-day average crossed back above the deeper downtrend reading on 28 July and has held the milder one for eleven sessions; ether made the same transition on 20 July. Both are making successively higher lows — bitcoin from $58,559 on 30 June to $62,312 on 1 August, ether from $1,565 to $1,821 — though bitcoin has spent the whole stretch inside a $62,000–$66,200 range rather than advancing. Coinbase has been in the deepest downtrend band continuously since 8 June and Strategy since 29 June. Bitmine's upgrade is two sessions old. Over 90 days every one of the five is still down, from 17.8% for ether to 49.0% for Strategy.

Bitcoin and ether are currencies with no issuer, so no earnings workup applies. The three equities do have one, and it separates them cleanly.

Coinbase: the tape is tracking the business

Coinbase Global runs the largest US crypto exchange plus custody and developer infrastructure. Second-quarter revenue fell 18.5% year over year to $1.22bn, after a 30.5% fall in the first quarter, producing a $73.5m operating loss and a $359.5m net loss. Transaction revenue dropped 21% to $599m against a $628m expectation, even as the company took a record 10.3% share of global spot volume — the pie shrank 25%. Subscriptions and services, now 48% of net revenue, are the offset: Coinbase One membership passed one million, and bitcoin trading has fallen to 12% of revenue from more than half historically.

Sixteen analysts model 2026 revenue at $5.41bn, down 24.8%, with average earnings per share of –$1.55. Because estimates are falling faster than the shares, the stock is not cheaper on the only usable multiple: 7.32x trailing sales versus 7.49x forward. Verdict: CONFIRMS — the de-rating matches the deterioration, and the valuation does not yet reflect a trough.

Two treasury companies, opposite balance sheets

Strategy Inc, formerly MicroStrategy, holds 842,138 bitcoin against a legacy analytics software business that generated $122.4m of quarterly revenue — immaterial next to an $8.22bn quarterly loss on bitcoin marks. It trades at 0.757x book, and its basic market-value-to-net-asset-value ratio has fallen to 0.68x from about 3.4x in November 2024. The leverage premium is gone. What replaced it is an obligation: roughly $1.76bn a year of preferred dividends and interest, funded in part by selling 1,638 bitcoin for about $105m in a single week. Diluted shares rose 34% in five quarters.

Bitmine trades at 0.895x book, and roughly 0.65x the market value of its $11.3bn treasury. Its share count expanded 175% in a year, but since 1 July it has repurchased 16.1 million shares under a $4bn authorisation. Both names: INCONCLUSIVE on the business, POSSIBLE DISLOCATION on valuation — one is buying its own stock back below asset value, the other is selling the asset to service its capital structure.

The drivers that aren't there

Two of the flows split exactly as prices did. US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in about $205m in July, the smallest month since launch, after $2.43bn and $4.52bn of redemptions in May and June. Spot ether funds took $365m and have now run five consecutive positive weeks. The money is going where the performance went.

The macro leg is absent. The Federal Open Market Committee held at 3.50–3.75% on 29 July with three members preferring a hike; July payrolls fell 23,000 against an expected 83,000 gain, which cut September hike odds to about 42% — less tightening risk, not easing. And the CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill, missed its pre-recess vote, with a first procedural vote now set for after the Senate returns on 14 September.

The setup

Where it stands — Ether and its largest corporate holder are recovering; bitcoin, Coinbase and Strategy are not yet participating.

Would confirm — Bitcoin holding above its 1 August low of $62,312 while spot bitcoin fund flows turn positive in August.

Would invalidate — Bitmine's discount to treasury value widening while buybacks stop, or bitcoin closing below $58,559.

Watch next — Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act after 14 September; Coinbase third-quarter results in late October.

Valuation — Coinbase 7.32x trailing sales versus 7.49x forward; Strategy 0.76x book, Bitmine 0.90x book.