DK Street Journal

Three of Four "CXL" Chipmakers Hit Revenue Records — None Actually Sells CXL

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.2

Four chipmakers filed under a memory-sharing label rallied hard in the first week of August after three of them posted record quarters. Microchip Technology, an embedded-control chipmaker, reported June-quarter sales of $1.485bn, up 38% year over year, with gross margin recovering for a fifth straight quarter to 63.2% from 53.6%; Rambus, which sells memory-interface chips and licenses patents, printed record revenue of $207.4m with its shipping product line growing faster than its licensing annuity; Everspin, a micro-cap maker of magnetic memory, printed a record $18.7m.

The business explains the rebound but not the label. On its own July earnings call Rambus called the memory-pooling standard "a fragmented ASIC market" and said it is licensing designs, not selling products; Everspin's exposure is a September demonstration and a memorandum of understanding. Allegro MicroSystems is the outlier — sales up 27.5% but a 9.8% operating margin and 42.5x forward earnings.

The unresolved part is whether the July de-rating or the August snap-back priced these correctly.

RMBSMCHPALGMMRAMMUSNDKWDCNXPISTMONNVDAAVGOMXLTXNADI
TickerCompanySegmentTrend30D1Y
The subject · what this brief is about
RMBSRambusInterconnect & Storage IP🟢 Cont. Bull−11.0%+39.3%
MCHPMicrochip Technology IncorporatedAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−4.0%+39.9%
ALGMAllegro MicroSystemsOther🟢 Cont. Bull−23.7%+42.2%
MRAMEverspin TechnologiesMemory (DRAM/NAND)🟢 Cont. Bull−8.3%+178.3%
Compared against · context, not the story
MUMicron TechnologyMemory (DRAM/NAND)🟢 Cont. Bull−11.5%+639.2%
SNDKSandiskSpecialty Manufacturing & Components🟢 Cont. Bull−34.8%+2633.9%
WDCWestern DigitalData Storage Devices🟢 Cont. Bull−24.9%+480.7%
NXPINXP SemiconductorsAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−17.5%+17.4%
STMSTMicroelectronicsAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−21.4%+125.0%
ONON SemiconductorAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−17.1%+70.3%
NVDANVIDIAAI & Data Center GPUs🟢 Cont. Bull+10.4%+22.6%
AVGOBroadcomSemiconductor Subsystems🟢 Cont. Bull+6.6%+41.1%
MXLMaxLinearRF & Wireless🟢 Cont. Bull−21.7%+395.6%
TXNTexas Instruments IncorporatedAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−7.3%+56.0%
ADIAnalog DevicesAnalog & Mixed-Signal🟢 Cont. Bull−0.9%+76.0%

12-month price & trend

RMBS
Rambus
102
+3.84 (+3.93%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
RMBS 12-month price
Interconnect & Storage IP
MCHP
Microchip Technology Incorporated
84.69
+10.33 (+13.89%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MCHP 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
ALGM
Allegro MicroSystems
43.77
+1.31 (+3.10%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ALGM 12-month price
Other
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
RMBS$11.0B45.7x33.4x14.6x13.3x18.7x17.0x34.3x2.7%
MCHP$46.0B117.3x26.5x9.0x7.4x15.0x12.3x30.3x2.4%
ALGM$8.2B540.4x42.5x8.6x7.4x18.2x15.7x79.7x1.1%
MRAM
Everspin Technologies
16.64
+0.99 (+6.33%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MRAM 12-month price
Memory (DRAM/NAND)
MU
Micron Technology
878
−3.90 (−0.44%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MU 12-month price
Memory (DRAM/NAND)
SNDK
Sandisk
1,212
−46.37 (−3.68%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SNDK 12-month price
Specialty Manufacturing & Components
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
MRAM$390.2Mn/m6.2x5.3x11.9x10.1x837.2x-2.3%
MU$1.0T19.9x12.2x11.2x7.8x15.4x10.7x14.5x2.6%
SNDK$208.5B46.2x21.8x15.8x10.6x28.2x18.9x37.1x2.1%
WDC
Western Digital
434
−17.22 (−3.81%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
WDC 12-month price
Data Storage Devices
NXPI
NXP Semiconductors
240
+7.93 (+3.42%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NXPI 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
STM
STMicroelectronics
56.10
+2.82 (+5.29%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
STM 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
WDC$166.1B25.6x48.3x14.1x12.9x31.0x28.4x31.1x1.7%
NXPI$56.5B19.0x14.8x4.3x4.0x7.7x7.2x13.1x5.2%
STM$54.6B369.4x51.3x4.2x3.9x12.4x11.5x22.4x0.2%
ON
ON Semiconductor
81.17
+2.84 (+3.63%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ON 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
NVDA
NVIDIA
224
+4.97 (+2.27%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
NVDA 12-month price
AI & Data Center GPUs
AVGO
Broadcom
428
+7.20 (+1.71%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
AVGO 12-month price
Semiconductor Subsystems
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
ON$31.6B51.4x25.4x5.1x4.8x13.6x12.8x25.7x5.6%
NVDA$5.4T34.0x24.8x21.3x13.7x28.7x18.5x28.0x2.2%
AVGO$2.0T69.1x36.9x27.0x19.3x40.3x28.8x49.5x1.6%
MXL
MaxLinear
74.98
+4.78 (+6.81%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
MXL 12-month price
RF & Wireless
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
286
+7.68 (+2.76%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
TXN 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
ADI
Analog Devices
390
+12.62 (+3.34%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
ADI 12-month price
Analog & Mixed-Signal
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
MXL$6.4Bn/m41.9x11.2x8.8x19.5x15.3xn/m0.1%
TXN$261.3B43.3x33.7x13.4x11.9x23.0x20.4x29.8x2.0%
ADI$189.9B57.7x31.4x14.9x12.9x23.1x20.0x31.5x2.4%

Valuation & fundamentals

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
RMBSRevenue+17.3%+19.6%+24.8%
EPS+21.5%+23.6%+25.3%
MCHPRevenue+6.2%+33.3%+16.1%
EPS+20.7%+103.7%+31.1%
ALGMRevenue+23.0%+24.5%+17.2%
EPS+131.1%+93.9%+45.5%
MRAMRevenue+33.0%+14.6%+4.2%
EPS+340.0%−218.2%+161.5%
MURevenue+248.0%+92.8%+11.4%
EPS+804.9%+111.2%+7.9%
SNDKRevenue+169.2%+113.5%+7.0%
EPS+2283.0%+167.8%+5.6%
WDCRevenue+36.9%+37.2%+26.5%
EPS+106.2%+72.8%+48.0%
NXPIRevenue+16.6%+11.6%+8.4%
EPS+28.2%+20.5%+15.8%
STMRevenue+20.0%+15.0%+10.5%
EPS+82.8%+95.1%+43.4%
ONRevenue+9.2%+12.9%+13.5%
EPS+37.1%+41.7%+31.7%
NVDARevenue+65.1%+84.2%+43.2%
EPS+59.0%+91.7%+42.0%
AVGORevenue+66.6%+65.5%+33.9%
EPS+71.7%+68.7%+33.7%
MXLRevenue+55.6%+29.7%+18.5%
EPS+479.6%+54.2%+19.7%
TXNRevenue+23.8%+14.0%+10.8%
EPS+55.0%+20.5%+18.4%
ADIRevenue+34.6%+16.0%+9.7%
EPS+59.8%+21.6%+15.0%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

Three of the four chipmakers grouped in this brief reported results in the ten days to 7 August, and all three set revenue records. Microchip Technology — which makes the small embedded-control chips, analog parts and memory devices that run cars, factory equipment and appliances — reported June-quarter net sales of $1.485bn, up 38% year over year, with adjusted earnings of $0.76 a share against a $0.68 consensus. Its shares rose 13.9% on 7 August on about four times a quiet day's volume.

Rambus, which sells the buffer and clock chips that sit between a server's processor and its memory modules and licenses a large memory-architecture patent portfolio, posted record revenue of $207.4m, up 20.4%, with product revenue of $99.2m up 22% — the shipping hardware growing faster than the licensing base. It ended the quarter with $824.9m in cash and began a roughly $100m accelerated share repurchase on 5 August. Everspin Technologies, an 85-person maker of magnetoresistive memory — chips that keep their contents when power is lost — reported record revenue of $18.7m, up 41.9%, helped by a $40m, two-and-a-half-year development subcontract with a US prime defence contractor. It still ran a $4.4m operating loss.

The label does not fit the businesses

The grouping's premise is Compute Express Link (CXL), a standard that lets servers pool memory chips and share them across processors, easing the shortage of memory bandwidth that starves artificial-intelligence accelerators. On the 27 July call, Rambus management said "CXL remains a fragmented ASIC market" and that the company is doing intellectual-property enablement rather than selling CXL products; its new DDR5 chipsets are a low-double-digit share of product revenue, with the higher-capacity MRDIMM module parts material only in 2027. Microchip's data-centre business — guided to roughly $1bn of calendar-2026 revenue, up about 69%, on 14 design wins for its PCIe Gen 6 switches — is interconnect and storage plumbing, not memory pooling. Everspin's CXL work is a September conference demonstration and a 4 August memorandum of understanding with MaxLinear to evaluate its chips in AI servers — a framework, not a supply contract. Allegro MicroSystems, which makes magnetic position and current sensors for carmakers and industrial customers, books under 5% of revenue from AI data centres.

Sector move, not segment move

The July decline was industry-wide. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell as much as 6% on 28 July, with SK Hynix down 14.65% and more than $1 trillion of chip-sector value erased on doubts about circular AI financing. Memory principals fell harder than this group over the same 30 days — SanDisk down 29.8%, Western Digital 21.1%, Micron 7.5% — while Nvidia rose 9.7% and Broadcom 10.1%. Allegro's 15.0% decline is indistinguishable from NXP Semiconductors at 15.5%, STMicroelectronics at 18.2% and ON Semiconductor at 13.5%: it followed the automotive analog group, not anything to do with memory. Rambus's 50-day average crossed below its 200-day on 22 July and Allegro's uptrend weakened on 3 August, but every name has risen sharply since the 29 July low, and all four remain well below their 52-week highs — Everspin 62%, Rambus 41%, Allegro 37%, Microchip 18%.

What the numbers say

Business momentum: CONTRADICTS the decline at three names. Microchip's gross margin has improved five quarters running (53.6%, 55.9%, 59.6%, 61.0%, 63.2%) against an $18.6m loss a year earlier; consensus has fiscal-2027 revenue at $6.22bn, up 33.3%. Rambus guided September revenue to $210–216m and consensus carries $825.6m for 2026 and $987.9m for 2027. Allegro is the exception and INCONCLUSIVE: revenue up 27.5% to $259.2m, but a 9.8% operating margin, and price targets cut on 31 July — TD Cowen to $48 from $66, Mizuho to $58 from $67.

Valuation: a genuine de-rating at two, not at the third. Rambus trades at 45.7x trailing and 33.4x forward earnings, with price-to-sales down to 14.56x from 16.82x on 3 May and price-to-gross-profit 18.60x against 20.92x — multiples down 11–15% while revenue growth accelerated. Microchip's 117x trailing earnings is distorted by a trough year; the 26.5x forward multiple on $3.19 of expected fiscal-2027 earnings is the usable one, and its price-to-gross-profit fell to 14.91x from 20.14x in May as gross profit grew 62.8%. Everspin has no forward earnings multiple — consensus still shows a 2026 loss of $0.11 — and trades at 5.35x forward sales on 33% expected growth. Allegro, at 42.5x forward earnings, 79.7x trailing enterprise value to EBITDA and a 1.1% free-cash-flow yield, is the one name where the de-rating looks earned.

The setup

Where it stands — Three of four printed record quarters into a sector-wide July selloff; the group has snapped back but sits far below its highs. Would confirm — Rambus product revenue lands in its guided $110–116m range while royalties fall to $69–75m, as management said. Would invalidate — Microchip's gross margin fails to extend past 63.2% next quarter, breaking a five-quarter recovery. Watch next — Everspin's September memory-industry conference demonstration of its CXL proof-of-concept; Rambus reports September-quarter results in late October. Valuation — Rambus 45.7x trailing / 33.4x forward earnings versus 53.7x trailing on 3 May; Microchip 26.5x forward against 117x trailing.