Three of Four "CXL" Chipmakers Hit Revenue Records — None Actually Sells CXL
Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Opus 5 · Writing Opus 5 · Prompt v1.2
Four chipmakers filed under a memory-sharing label rallied hard in the first week of August after three of them posted record quarters. Microchip Technology, an embedded-control chipmaker, reported June-quarter sales of $1.485bn, up 38% year over year, with gross margin recovering for a fifth straight quarter to 63.2% from 53.6%; Rambus, which sells memory-interface chips and licenses patents, printed record revenue of $207.4m with its shipping product line growing faster than its licensing annuity; Everspin, a micro-cap maker of magnetic memory, printed a record $18.7m.
The business explains the rebound but not the label. On its own July earnings call Rambus called the memory-pooling standard "a fragmented ASIC market" and said it is licensing designs, not selling products; Everspin's exposure is a September demonstration and a memorandum of understanding. Allegro MicroSystems is the outlier — sales up 27.5% but a 9.8% operating margin and 42.5x forward earnings.
The unresolved part is whether the July de-rating or the August snap-back priced these correctly.
| Ticker | Company | Segment | Trend | 30D | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The subject · what this brief is about | |||||
RMBS | Rambus | Interconnect & Storage IP | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −11.0% | +39.3% |
MCHP | Microchip Technology Incorporated | Analog & Mixed-Signal | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −4.0% | +39.9% |
ALGM | Allegro MicroSystems | Other | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −23.7% | +42.2% |
MRAM | Everspin Technologies | Memory (DRAM/NAND) | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −8.3% | +178.3% |
| Compared against · context, not the story | |||||
MU | Micron Technology | Memory (DRAM/NAND) | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −11.5% | +639.2% |
SNDK | Sandisk | Specialty Manufacturing & Components | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −34.8% | +2633.9% |
WDC | Western Digital | Data Storage Devices | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −24.9% | +480.7% |
NXPI | NXP Semiconductors | Analog & Mixed-Signal | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −17.5% | +17.4% |
STM | STMicroelectronics | Analog & Mixed-Signal | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −21.4% | +125.0% |
ON | ON Semiconductor | Analog & Mixed-Signal | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −17.1% | +70.3% |
NVDA | NVIDIA | AI & Data Center GPUs | 🟢 Cont. Bull | +10.4% | +22.6% |
AVGO | Broadcom | Semiconductor Subsystems | 🟢 Cont. Bull | +6.6% | +41.1% |
MXL | MaxLinear | RF & Wireless | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −21.7% | +395.6% |
TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | Analog & Mixed-Signal | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −7.3% | +56.0% |
ADI | Analog Devices | Analog & Mixed-Signal | 🟢 Cont. Bull | −0.9% | +76.0% |
12-month price & trend
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMBS | $11.0B | 45.7x | 33.4x | 14.6x | 13.3x | 18.7x | 17.0x | 34.3x | 2.7% |
MCHP | $46.0B | 117.3x | 26.5x | 9.0x | 7.4x | 15.0x | 12.3x | 30.3x | 2.4% |
ALGM | $8.2B | 540.4x | 42.5x | 8.6x | 7.4x | 18.2x | 15.7x | 79.7x | 1.1% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MRAM | $390.2M | n/m | — | 6.2x | 5.3x | 11.9x | 10.1x | 837.2x | -2.3% |
MU | $1.0T | 19.9x | 12.2x | 11.2x | 7.8x | 15.4x | 10.7x | 14.5x | 2.6% |
SNDK | $208.5B | 46.2x | 21.8x | 15.8x | 10.6x | 28.2x | 18.9x | 37.1x | 2.1% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WDC | $166.1B | 25.6x | 48.3x | 14.1x | 12.9x | 31.0x | 28.4x | 31.1x | 1.7% |
NXPI | $56.5B | 19.0x | 14.8x | 4.3x | 4.0x | 7.7x | 7.2x | 13.1x | 5.2% |
STM | $54.6B | 369.4x | 51.3x | 4.2x | 3.9x | 12.4x | 11.5x | 22.4x | 0.2% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ON | $31.6B | 51.4x | 25.4x | 5.1x | 4.8x | 13.6x | 12.8x | 25.7x | 5.6% |
NVDA | $5.4T | 34.0x | 24.8x | 21.3x | 13.7x | 28.7x | 18.5x | 28.0x | 2.2% |
AVGO | $2.0T | 69.1x | 36.9x | 27.0x | 19.3x | 40.3x | 28.8x | 49.5x | 1.6% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MXL | $6.4B | n/m | 41.9x | 11.2x | 8.8x | 19.5x | 15.3x | n/m | 0.1% |
TXN | $261.3B | 43.3x | 33.7x | 13.4x | 11.9x | 23.0x | 20.4x | 29.8x | 2.0% |
ADI | $189.9B | 57.7x | 31.4x | 14.9x | 12.9x | 23.1x | 20.0x | 31.5x | 2.4% |
Valuation & fundamentals
Consensus projections
| Ticker | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
RMBS | Revenue | +17.3% | +19.6% | +24.8% |
| EPS | +21.5% | +23.6% | +25.3% | |
MCHP | Revenue | +6.2% | +33.3% | +16.1% |
| EPS | +20.7% | +103.7% | +31.1% | |
ALGM | Revenue | +23.0% | +24.5% | +17.2% |
| EPS | +131.1% | +93.9% | +45.5% | |
MRAM | Revenue | +33.0% | +14.6% | +4.2% |
| EPS | +340.0% | −218.2% | +161.5% | |
MU | Revenue | +248.0% | +92.8% | +11.4% |
| EPS | +804.9% | +111.2% | +7.9% | |
SNDK | Revenue | +169.2% | +113.5% | +7.0% |
| EPS | +2283.0% | +167.8% | +5.6% | |
WDC | Revenue | +36.9% | +37.2% | +26.5% |
| EPS | +106.2% | +72.8% | +48.0% | |
NXPI | Revenue | +16.6% | +11.6% | +8.4% |
| EPS | +28.2% | +20.5% | +15.8% | |
STM | Revenue | +20.0% | +15.0% | +10.5% |
| EPS | +82.8% | +95.1% | +43.4% | |
ON | Revenue | +9.2% | +12.9% | +13.5% |
| EPS | +37.1% | +41.7% | +31.7% | |
NVDA | Revenue | +65.1% | +84.2% | +43.2% |
| EPS | +59.0% | +91.7% | +42.0% | |
AVGO | Revenue | +66.6% | +65.5% | +33.9% |
| EPS | +71.7% | +68.7% | +33.7% | |
MXL | Revenue | +55.6% | +29.7% | +18.5% |
| EPS | +479.6% | +54.2% | +19.7% | |
TXN | Revenue | +23.8% | +14.0% | +10.8% |
| EPS | +55.0% | +20.5% | +18.4% | |
ADI | Revenue | +34.6% | +16.0% | +9.7% |
| EPS | +59.8% | +21.6% | +15.0% |
Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.
Three of the four chipmakers grouped in this brief reported results in the ten days to 7 August, and all three set revenue records. Microchip Technology — which makes the small embedded-control chips, analog parts and memory devices that run cars, factory equipment and appliances — reported June-quarter net sales of $1.485bn, up 38% year over year, with adjusted earnings of $0.76 a share against a $0.68 consensus. Its shares rose 13.9% on 7 August on about four times a quiet day's volume.
Rambus, which sells the buffer and clock chips that sit between a server's processor and its memory modules and licenses a large memory-architecture patent portfolio, posted record revenue of $207.4m, up 20.4%, with product revenue of $99.2m up 22% — the shipping hardware growing faster than the licensing base. It ended the quarter with $824.9m in cash and began a roughly $100m accelerated share repurchase on 5 August. Everspin Technologies, an 85-person maker of magnetoresistive memory — chips that keep their contents when power is lost — reported record revenue of $18.7m, up 41.9%, helped by a $40m, two-and-a-half-year development subcontract with a US prime defence contractor. It still ran a $4.4m operating loss.
The label does not fit the businesses
The grouping's premise is Compute Express Link (CXL), a standard that lets servers pool memory chips and share them across processors, easing the shortage of memory bandwidth that starves artificial-intelligence accelerators. On the 27 July call, Rambus management said "CXL remains a fragmented ASIC market" and that the company is doing intellectual-property enablement rather than selling CXL products; its new DDR5 chipsets are a low-double-digit share of product revenue, with the higher-capacity MRDIMM module parts material only in 2027. Microchip's data-centre business — guided to roughly $1bn of calendar-2026 revenue, up about 69%, on 14 design wins for its PCIe Gen 6 switches — is interconnect and storage plumbing, not memory pooling. Everspin's CXL work is a September conference demonstration and a 4 August memorandum of understanding with MaxLinear to evaluate its chips in AI servers — a framework, not a supply contract. Allegro MicroSystems, which makes magnetic position and current sensors for carmakers and industrial customers, books under 5% of revenue from AI data centres.
Sector move, not segment move
The July decline was industry-wide. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell as much as 6% on 28 July, with SK Hynix down 14.65% and more than $1 trillion of chip-sector value erased on doubts about circular AI financing. Memory principals fell harder than this group over the same 30 days — SanDisk down 29.8%, Western Digital 21.1%, Micron 7.5% — while Nvidia rose 9.7% and Broadcom 10.1%. Allegro's 15.0% decline is indistinguishable from NXP Semiconductors at 15.5%, STMicroelectronics at 18.2% and ON Semiconductor at 13.5%: it followed the automotive analog group, not anything to do with memory. Rambus's 50-day average crossed below its 200-day on 22 July and Allegro's uptrend weakened on 3 August, but every name has risen sharply since the 29 July low, and all four remain well below their 52-week highs — Everspin 62%, Rambus 41%, Allegro 37%, Microchip 18%.
What the numbers say
Business momentum: CONTRADICTS the decline at three names. Microchip's gross margin has improved five quarters running (53.6%, 55.9%, 59.6%, 61.0%, 63.2%) against an $18.6m loss a year earlier; consensus has fiscal-2027 revenue at $6.22bn, up 33.3%. Rambus guided September revenue to $210–216m and consensus carries $825.6m for 2026 and $987.9m for 2027. Allegro is the exception and INCONCLUSIVE: revenue up 27.5% to $259.2m, but a 9.8% operating margin, and price targets cut on 31 July — TD Cowen to $48 from $66, Mizuho to $58 from $67.
Valuation: a genuine de-rating at two, not at the third. Rambus trades at 45.7x trailing and 33.4x forward earnings, with price-to-sales down to 14.56x from 16.82x on 3 May and price-to-gross-profit 18.60x against 20.92x — multiples down 11–15% while revenue growth accelerated. Microchip's 117x trailing earnings is distorted by a trough year; the 26.5x forward multiple on $3.19 of expected fiscal-2027 earnings is the usable one, and its price-to-gross-profit fell to 14.91x from 20.14x in May as gross profit grew 62.8%. Everspin has no forward earnings multiple — consensus still shows a 2026 loss of $0.11 — and trades at 5.35x forward sales on 33% expected growth. Allegro, at 42.5x forward earnings, 79.7x trailing enterprise value to EBITDA and a 1.1% free-cash-flow yield, is the one name where the de-rating looks earned.
The setup
Where it stands — Three of four printed record quarters into a sector-wide July selloff; the group has snapped back but sits far below its highs. Would confirm — Rambus product revenue lands in its guided $110–116m range while royalties fall to $69–75m, as management said. Would invalidate — Microchip's gross margin fails to extend past 63.2% next quarter, breaking a five-quarter recovery. Watch next — Everspin's September memory-industry conference demonstration of its CXL proof-of-concept; Rambus reports September-quarter results in late October. Valuation — Rambus 45.7x trailing / 33.4x forward earnings versus 53.7x trailing on 3 May; Microchip 26.5x forward against 117x trailing.
















