DK Street Journal

AI Data-Center Stocks Slide Together, But Signed Leases Set Two Apart From Four

Hypothesis Opus 5 · Research Sonnet 5 · Writing Sonnet 5 · Prompt v1.1

Six companies that build and lease the racks and megawatts AI computing runs on pulled back together over the past month after a huge run, but their disclosures diverge sharply: two Chinese wholesale hosts show accelerating revenue at a steep discount to U.S. peers, a U.S. leasing operator already re-rated cheaper through real contract growth, and three smaller newcomers range from a credible growth story to a disputed $1.25 billion contract under litigation.

APLDGDSVNETKEELSHAZWYFI
TickerCompanySegmentTrend30D1Y
APLDApplied DigitalData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🟢 Cont. Bull−11.5%+112.5%
GDSGDSData Center & Cloud Infrastructure⚠️ Emerging Bear+4.5%−7.6%
VNETVNETData Center & Cloud Infrastructure⚠️ Emerging Bear−11.3%−11.4%
KEELKeel InfrastructureData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🟢 Cont. Bull−11.9%+255.4%
SHAZSharonAIData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🌱 Emerging Bull−34.7%+64.7%
WYFIWhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary SharesData Center & Cloud Infrastructure🌱 Emerging Bull−27.4%+59.1%

12-month price & trend

APLD
Applied Digital
29.65
+2.26 (+8.25%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
APLD 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
GDS
GDS
32.28
−0.46 (−1.41%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
GDS 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
VNET
VNET
6.93
−0.24 (−3.42%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
VNET 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
APLD$7.8Bn/m12.8x9.6x57.2x42.9xn/m-35.5%
GDS$6.3B15.6x4.7x3.6x0.5x14.2x2.0x13.8x-3.1%
VNET$1.9Bn/m1.3x0.2x6.0x0.9x9.6x-45.5%
KEEL
Keel Infrastructure
4.26
+0.29 (+7.43%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
KEEL 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
SHAZ
SharonAI
52.22
+3.97 (+8.22%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
SHAZ 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
WYFI
WhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary Shares
25.81
+2.11 (+8.89%)
vs. prior close
Price20d50d150d
WYFI 12-month price
Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure
TickerMkt capP/EP/E fwdP/SP/S fwdP/GPP/GP fwdEV/EBITDAFCF yld
KEEL$2.5Bn/m12.7x22.5xn/m-13.2%
SHAZ$512.9Mn/m334.0x3.4x52.8xn/m-12.0%
WYFI$1.0Bn/m11.9x7.9x27.6x18.3xn/m6.0%

Valuation & fundamentals

Consensus projections

TickerFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
APLDRevenue+98.7%+90.3%+154.7%
EPS−24.3%+1.2%−145.0%
GDSRevenue+11.2%+11.0%+18.0%
EPS−13.3%−75.5%+48.9%
VNETRevenue+19.9%+21.0%+18.6%
EPS−37.9%−261.0%+74.7%
KEELRevenue−59.1%+12.9%+81.9%
EPS+59.7%−46.8%+71.4%
SHAZRevenue+9846.3%+823.7%+76.6%
EPS−44.7%+7.9%+24.6%
WYFIRevenue+63.5%+110.2%+54.2%
EPS+2.2%−134.8%+157.8%

Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.

The six companies that build, lease and power the physical data centers AI computing providers rent by the megawatt have fallen together over the past month, giving back a chunk of a run that made this corner of the market one of the best-performing over the past year. But their actual leases, revenue and balance sheets tell three separate stories: two Chinese wholesale hosts trading at a steep discount to U.S. peers while revenue accelerates, one U.S. operator that already worked off its richest multiple through real contract growth rather than a falling stock price, and three much smaller, newer companies ranging from a credible growth story to a disputed contract under litigation.

Applied Digital (APLD), which builds and leases high-performance-computing data centers to AI companies in North America after abandoning crypto mining in 2022, is the group's largest by market value at roughly $7.8 billion. Fiscal 2026 revenue tripled to $611.3 million as leases with CoreWeave and an undisclosed investment-grade hyperscale customer began paying off — a 150-megawatt lease expansion finalized this year brought total CoreWeave-related capacity to 400 megawatts and roughly $11 billion of contracted revenue across three roughly 15-year leases, with the first 100 megawatts reaching full service in November 2025, on schedule rather than delayed. That growth cut the trailing price-to-sales multiple from 28.7x three months ago to 12.8x today (9.6x forward) — the stock's 30-day, 17% pullback looks more like a re-entry into an already-cheaper name than a re-rating of an expensive one. The company still lost $244 million on an operating basis funding that buildout, and convertible notes priced in 2024 carry dilution protection capped at $14.72 a share — no cushion now that the stock trades at $27.39, a real dilution risk if shares stay above that level into conversion.

GDS Holdings (GDS) and VNET Group (VNET), which build and operate wholesale and colocation data centers across China for cloud providers, internet firms and banks, are the clearest case of a business outrunning its stock. GDS revenue growth reaccelerated to 23.6% year over year in the first quarter after three quarters of near-flat growth, with area utilization rising to 75.5%; VNET revenue has grown 18%-24% every quarter for more than a year. Both trade at 1x-3x sales versus roughly 10.5x for U.S. data-center REITs, a gap tied to audit-compliance and delisting overhang on their China listings rather than operating weakness. GDS also pushed a $550 million convertible note's maturity from 2029 to 2032, reducing near-term refinancing risk, and both stocks rallied roughly 8% in early July on reports China is weighing a five-year, roughly $295 billion data-center investment program — a sector catalyst, not a company-specific one.

The three smaller names are far less alike than their grouping suggests. KEEL Infrastructure, the renamed and U.S.-redomiciled parent of former crypto miner Bitfarms, is pivoting toward a 2.2-gigawatt power pipeline across Pennsylvania, Washington and Quebec, but first-quarter revenue fell 44.7% year over year with a $145 million net loss, and consensus expects a further 59% revenue decline in fiscal 2026 even as its forward price-to-sales multiple rises to 22.5x from 12.7x trailing — a shrinking business getting more expensive, not less. SharonAI Holdings (SHAZ), a GPU-cloud company that went public via SPAC merger in December, generated just $294,000 of revenue in the first quarter against a $513 million market value; its forward multiple only looks reasonable if a disputed $1.25 billion contract materializes, and an April short-seller report alleges the counterparty earned just $5.8 million in its own last fiscal year while separately flagging litigation accusing the CEO of self-dealing at his prior company. WhiteFiber (WYFI), spun off from Bit Digital last August, is the exception: revenue grew 66% to $79.2 million in fiscal 2025 at a 62% gross margin, with consensus projecting a 45% EBITDA margin in fiscal 2026 — a credible path to profit, though only a year of trading history leaves no multi-year range to judge its 7.9x forward sales multiple against.

Financing conditions across this industry are genuinely tightening — short-term, GPU-collateralized debt now carries interest above 12% industry-wide, with roughly $7.5 billion maturing within an 18-month window in 2026, prompting Nvidia to introduce backstop financing. That risk lands unevenly: Applied Digital's dilution cushion is gone at current prices while GDS just extended its own maturity wall by three years.

On the tape, the pullback isn't uniform: five of six names are down over the past 30 days, but GDS's price is actually up 8.2% even as its trend indicator has read bearish continuously since late June — a case where the momentum signal and the fundamentals disagree, and the fundamentals here (accelerating revenue, an extended debt maturity) are the more persuasive read.

The setup

Where it stands — The group is down for 30 days after a divergent 12-month run; GDS and VNET show accelerating revenue at low multiples while APLD, KEEL and SHAZ diverge on credibility and dilution risk. Would confirm — GDS/VNET quarterly revenue growth stays above 20% for two more quarters while their price-to-sales multiples remain below 3x versus ~10.5x U.S. peers. Would invalidate — SharonAI's disputed $1.25 billion contract fails to show up as billed, disclosed revenue by year-end, or Applied Digital's shares trigger convert dilution above $14.72. Watch next — Next quarterly reports for GDS, VNET and Applied Digital, due within roughly eight to ten weeks, for updated utilization and lease disclosures. Valuation — GDS trades at 13.75x trailing EV/EBITDA and ~2.7x sales versus ~10.5x for U.S. REIT peers; Applied Digital's trailing P/S has fallen to 12.8x from 28.7x three months ago.

Sources (33)

Also checked against 16 company-fundamentals reads, 9 price-database queries, 1 research note in the author's own data.

Originating hypothesis

category gradual pullback within sustained bull · category: Technology > Information Technology Services > Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure

The unstarred "Technology > Information Technology Services > Data Center & Cloud Infrastructure" segment (APLD, GDS, VNET, KEEL, SHAZ, WYFI) is the one AI-datacenter operating layer in this loop's universe sample this desk has never examined on its own terms — up 78.8% over twelve months with a still bullish label while giving back 15.4% over the past 30 days at gradual intensity, with no member appearing in any violent mover list — so the question is whether the companies that actually own and lease the racks and megawatts (rather than the silicon inside them or the REITs that hold the land) still have runway from CURRENT prices on validatable fundamentals: whether Applied Digital's HPC hosting leases with named hyperscale tenants are dated, signed, take-or-pay contracts with disclosed lease term, annualized revenue and in-service dates rather than LOIs, and whether its Ellendale/Polaris Forge build is funded without further equity dilution against its convertible and project-debt stack and its history of missed energization timelines; whether GDS's and VNET's China utilization, move-in MW, wholesale-versus-retail mix, offshore (DayOne/Southeast Asia) expansion and refinancing walls make them a different business entirely from the US names they are averaged with; and what the three micro-cap members (KEEL, SHAZ, WYFI) actually are — revenue base, cash runway, dilution history and whether they belong in this cohort at all or are producing a cohort average that is one leveraged neocloud carrying a Chinese operator and three shells. Measure each on forward EV/EBITDA, contracted-versus-speculative MW, net-debt/EBITDA, development yield versus cost of capital and free-cash-flow after capex against its own three- to ten-year range, to establish how much of a +79% year was contracted earnings versus multiple expansion — and whether the 30-day give-back is a re-entry window or the first tick of the neocloud financing cycle tightening.