Bitcoin and Ether, the two largest cryptocurrencies, have essentially stopped falling over the past month after a year in which each lost more than 40% of its value. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that let ordinary investors buy the coins through a brokerage account are, for the first time since spring, taking in more cash than they're losing. That would normally be good news for the handful of publicly traded companies whose entire business is holding or trading these coins. It isn't. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software company turned Bitcoin holding vehicle now branded Strategy, Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), a small Las Vegas firm that has become the largest corporate holder of Ether, and Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, have all kept falling even as the coins they're built on found a floor.

The coins: a real, if young, stabilization. Bitcoin's price trend was upgraded from a steep downtrend to a milder one on July 28 and has held there since; Ether's equivalent upgrade came nine days earlier, on July 20, and has lasted about two weeks. Both trends had been deeply negative since mid-June and, on a 365-day view, had been strongly positive a year ago — confirming the damage is now largely in the past rather than still unfolding. The evidence behind Ether's turn is more solid: spot Ether ETFs pulled in $365 million in July, their best month of 2026, after two months that shed more than $1 billion combined. Bitcoin's ETFs, by contrast, managed just $205–221 million in July — the smallest monthly haul since the funds launched in January 2024 — after $2.4 billion and $4.5 billion left in May and June. Bitcoin held on exchanges, where coins are ready to be sold, sits at 6.6% of supply, the lowest since 2017, consistent with coins moving into longer-term storage. Still, major on-chain research firms including CryptoQuant, Glassnode and Benjamin Cowen still peg the fourth quarter of 2026, not now, as the likeliest cycle bottom, with more than 8 million Bitcoin still sitting at a paper loss. Meanwhile, several public Bitcoin miners have been selling down treasuries to fund a pivot into AI data centers, an active supply overhang that hasn't fully cleared.

The proxies: a company story, not a coin story. Strategy's trend remained in its steepest downtrend through the end of July, even as Bitcoin's eased. The company now holds roughly 843,775 Bitcoin at an average cost of $66,385 each — above the roughly $63,000 spot price, meaning its treasury book is underwater in aggregate for the first time this cycle. Strategy also carries more than $1.5 billion a year in preferred-stock dividend obligations and only about 18 months of cash to cover them; in May it sold Bitcoin to help fund those payments, its first sale since 2022. Its shares trade at 0.68 times the value of its Bitcoin holdings — a discount, down from a 2.6-to-3.0-times premium in late 2024 — but the forced-seller dynamic around the dividend is a company overhang that would persist even in a coin recovery. Bitmine's diluted share count grew 69% in two quarters (325.7 million to 551.8 million) as it issued stock to keep buying Ether, and it books multibillion-dollar accounting losses tied to swings in its Ether holdings; its stock traded at 0.82 times book value, also a discount, even after bouncing 20% in the past month. Coinbase, the one name here that actually runs an operating business rather than just holding coins, reported second-quarter revenue down 19% year over year and missed estimates on both trading commissions and subscription services; its stock fell 11.6% over 30 days even as the coins it trades stabilized. Its subscription line — record $20 billion in customer stablecoin balances and rising custody and exchange market share — held up better than trading revenue, giving it a partial fundamentals floor trading revenue alone doesn't provide, but at 64 times trailing earnings against a shrinking top line, the stock's de-rating looks tied to its own numbers, not the coin tape.

Verdicts. For Bitcoin and Ether, the business case (ETF demand, exchange supply) is INCONCLUSIVE for Bitcoin and CONFIRMS for Ether, and neither is a settled bottom by on-chain researchers' own account. For MicroStrategy and Bitmine, the sub-1.0x valuation to their crypto holdings suggests a possible dislocation, but dilution and dividend obligations mean the de-rating partly CONTRADICTS a pure coin-recovery story — these are increasingly company problems layered on top of coin exposure. For Coinbase, the 64x earnings multiple against declining revenue looks like a JUSTIFIED de-rating tied to its own results, not a mispriced coin proxy.

The setup

Where it stands — Bitcoin and Ether have held milder downtrends for one and two weeks respectively; MicroStrategy, Bitmine and Coinbase remain in steep downtrends and keep falling. Would confirm — Bitcoin spot-ETF monthly net flows exceed $1 billion again and MicroStrategy's mNAV holds above 0.68x for multiple weeks. Would invalidate — Bitcoin or Ether trend downgrades back to a steep downtrend, or exchange balances start rising again. Watch next — August spot-ETF flow data and Strategy's next quarterly disclosure of BTC holdings and cash runway. Valuation — MSTR trades at 0.68x its Bitcoin holdings (was 2.6–3.0x in late 2024); COIN at 64x trailing earnings on declining revenue.