Two vintages, one week of acceleration

The local band history separates this cohort cleanly. EOSE exited bull bands on 2026-02-26 and re-entered strongly bearish on 06-25; RUN left on 2026-03-06 and is back in strongly bearish since 06-29; STEM has been in bear bands since 2026-02-10. ARRY and SHLS were already bearish at their last observation in March. That group is a post-mortem, not an emerging leg.

The new information is the July vintage. CWEN held strongly bullish for most of Q1 and Q2, flipped to mildly bearish on 2026-07-02 and to strongly bearish on 07-20. FLNC was in strongly bullish as recently as 07-10 and mildly bearish from 07-15 — alongside a -41.8% 30-day drawdown. ENPH and SEDG both exited strongly bullish on the same day, 2026-07-08, and remain in mildly bullish despite 30-day declines of -24.5% and -16.8%.

Thirty-day moves are cohort-wide: EOSE -45.8%, FLNC -41.8%, RUN -26.0%, STEM -25.4%, ENPH -24.5%, SEDG -16.8%, CWEN -12.9%. Six of seven trade below their 200-day averages; only SEDG ($47.88 vs $42.45) is above.

The macro leg is dated and real

Three drivers land on the same weeks. The OBBBA set a begin-construction deadline of July 4 2026 for 45Y/48E eligibility, with a court having restored the 5% safe harbor but capped it at 1.5 MW for solar starting before July 5 2026. Storage faces Notice 2026-15's 55% non-FEOC cost test under rules barring prohibited-foreign-entity content from 48E, 45Y and 45X, while 25D went to zero on January 1 2026. Second, Brent above $96 on US-Iran escalation drove SEDG -20.3%, RUN -16.5% and ENPH -11.3% in the week to July 24 and pushed July hike odds to ~38% and September to ~82% — even though economists expected a fifth straight hold. Third, cost: LFP storage cells +22% in six months on lithium carbonate nearly doubling to ~US$26,278/t.

What doesn't generalise

EOSE is contaminated. Its rights offering at $5.481 per unit expired July 21, raising ~$263M against a $250M target, on top of a Cerberus package worth up to 49% of fully diluted equity. The $3.98 close is 27% below the subscription price — financing distress, not cohort read-through.

Demand context: SEIA/Wood Mackenzie put Q1 resi installs at 1,179 MWdc, down 15% sequentially, with a 21% full-year decline forecast. Sunrun's Q1 showed negative $59M cash generation with a record 73% storage attach, after February's 35% guidance-driven collapse; targets including Truist's cut to $35 from $52 still sit far above the $9.98 close, meaning estimates are chasing price. FLNC's ~$5.6B backlog and reaffirmed FY guide suggest multiple compression, not an order-book break. Enphase's Q2 guide of $280-310M, reported July 28, is the test for whether the mildly bullish holdouts confirm.