Creative software broke first: GETY/SSTK are the last leg, not the leading edge
Prompt v1.0
The hypothesis that Getty and Shutterstock are the leading edge of a gen-AI de-rating spreading up the creative stack has the sequence backwards. ADBE and FIG broke into bear bands nine months earlier and are now recovering — +12.0% and +12.5% over the trailing month on raised guidance — while GETY/SSTK's collapse traces to a dateable merger-break and balance-sheet sequence with no read-through.
| Ticker | Company | Segment | Trend · 13mo | 30D | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GETY | Getty Images | Internet Content & Information | 🔴 Cont. Bear | −56.6% | −77.8% |
SSTK | Shutterstock | Media & Content Distribution | 🔴 Cont. Bear | −57.7% | −68.2% |
FIG | Figma | Design & Content Creation | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +27.8% | −78.9% |
ADBE | Adobe | Design & Content Creation | 🔴 Cont. Bear | +20.7% | −32.6% |
12-month price & trend
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GETY | $128.8M | n/m | 13.4x | 0.1x | 0.1x | 0.2x | 0.2x | 11.7x | -65.1% |
SSTK | $198.8M | n/m | — | 0.2x | 0.3x | 0.4x | 0.4x | n/m | 44.7% |
FIG | $12.7B | n/m | 90.8x | 9.9x | 8.6x | 12.5x | 10.9x | n/m | 1.8% |
| Ticker | Mkt cap | P/E | P/E fwd | P/S | P/S fwd | P/GP | P/GP fwd | EV/EBITDA | FCF yld |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADBE | $101.0B | 14.5x | 10.4x | 4.0x | 3.8x | 4.5x | 4.3x | 10.4x | 10.5% |
Consensus projections
| Ticker | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
GETY | Revenue | +1.8% | +0.9% | +3.8% |
| EPS | −112.1% | +126.0% | +185.7% | |
SSTK | Revenue | −23.3% | −8.0% | −4.9% |
| EPS | −145.9% | −148.0% | +10.2% | |
FIG | Revenue | +40.5% | +23.8% | +24.2% |
| EPS | −24.5% | +26.7% | +34.4% | |
ADBE | Revenue | +12.0% | +9.1% | +8.8% |
| EPS | +17.2% | +12.7% | +14.2% |
Forward fiscal years only. Blank means no analyst coverage for that year.
The ordering is backwards
The trend-band record refutes the premise. ADBE has been in bear bands nearly continuously since 2025-07-03 (strongly bearish again from 2026-06-15), and FIG went neutral→strongly bearish on 2025-10-09. Both broke well before GETY (mildly bearish→strongly bearish only on 2026-06-18) and SSTK (2026-05-19). Through September–November 2025, GETY and SSTK were sitting in strongly bullish bands at the exact moment the software names were in strongly bearish — the content-licensing pair lagged the creative-software de-rating by roughly nine months.
Momentum now runs the other way. Over the trailing month to 2026-07-22, ADBE is +12.0% and FIG +12.5% (+14.7% over three months), against GETY -58.2% and SSTK -53.0%. FIG's band actually upgraded strongly bearish→mildly bearish on 2026-07-22 and the stock trades essentially on its 50-day average ($21.47 vs $21.29), sitting -29.0% below its 200-day versus GETY at -58.5% and SSTK at -57.9%.
The fundamentals split, not converge
Adobe posted record Q2 FY2026 revenue of $6.62bn, +12.7% YoY, with AI-first ARR tripling past $500M and raised FY26 guidance. Figma reported Q1 revenue +46% to $333.4M with 139% net dollar retention and guidance raised $55M. Sell-side followed: HSBC upgraded Adobe to Buy at $308 and Citi initiated Figma at Buy, saying the market is "overestimating the adverse impact of AI-based design tools".
The licensing names went the other way: Shutterstock Q1 revenue fell 18% to $199.2M with a $47.6M net loss and subscribers down to 993,000, while Getty's Q1 revenue of $226.6M missed consensus with EBITDA -12.2% against $2.0bn of debt.
A dateable corporate sequence
The move also wasn't gradual. GETY closed +90% on 2026-06-22 on 217.9M shares after announcing a multi-year display licensing deal placing its library inside ChatGPT — a spike that fully round-tripped below its pre-news close. Then Getty's board declined the CMA-mandated editorial divestiture and terminated the $3.7bn merger on 7 July, triggering mandatory redemption of its 10.5% 2030 secured notes, atop an NYSE sub-$1.00 compliance notice dated 17 March 2026. SSTK fell 29.0% on 7/1 and a further 24.9% on 7/23 after suspending its dividend and disclosing its CAO's resignation, following the CEO's immediate departure around 13 July. Getty's target was cut to $0.85 from $1.85.
The licensing-royalty leg is separately impaired: the UK High Court rejected Getty's central copyright claim against Stability AI in November 2025, leaving only the refiled Northern District of California case, where most claims survived dismissal but remain unresolved. VMEO and WPP could not be tested — VMEO has no price rows and WPP's history ends 2026-05-19.