What the tape actually says

The drawdown is real and it is deep. Measured peak-to-22-July, WOLF is -60.2% (peak 26 May), VICR -42.8% (30 June), 009150.KS -40.7% (19 June) and GLW -39.7% (29 June), against ON -31.1%, STM -17.7%, MPWR -17.2%, NVT -14.0% and APH -10.7%. But it is not confined to second-tier components: COHR -26.9%, LITE -21.2%, MU -20.9%, VRT -20.0%, AVGO -17.6% and NVDA -10.0% are all off post-May highs while SPY is only -1.6%. The dated trigger is the semiconductor sell-off that began 1 July, when Micron shed ~13% and ~$138B of value on reports SK Hynix was slowing HBM capacity expansion, alongside AI-ROI skepticism and a hawkish Fed.

The trend-band evidence cuts directly against the "early leg of a downtrend" reading. GLW and 009150.KS have been in unbroken strongly bullish bands since at least 2 February; WOLF has been mildly bullish since 2 July; VICR only downgraded strongly bullish to mildly bullish on 20 July, three sessions before the latest data. All five names remain above their approximate 200-day averages, and on longer horizons the cohort is still up hard — 009150.KS +98% over three months and +893% over twelve, VICR +381% over twelve.

Two corroborators are data artifacts

Mueller's -54% is a two-for-one split that began split-adjusted trading on 1 July; adjusted, MLI is roughly -7% over three months, and its strongly bearish band flip is split-contaminated. KLAC's -88% is a ten-for-one split effective 12 June and Furukawa's -91% a 10-for-1 split effective 1 July. Copper offers no help either — LME cash was about 4.5% below early-June levels in early July.

Multiples, not demand

Going in, GLW traded at 106x trailing earnings and VICR at 109x and 35x sales. Vicor's Q2 was an operational beat — revenue $143.4M, +49% YoY, 58% gross margin, backlog +26% sequentially — yet shares slipped because ~$15M of one-time royalty revenue flattered margin and the first CHiP fab is nearing full utilization. Corning fell 13.3% on 1 July with no demand news after a Q1 that showed core sales +18% and Optical +36% YoY; its Q2 guide of ~$4.6B and a 28 July print both postdate the sell-off. onsemi does not report until 3 August, so its -31% carries no guidance cut. In Korea, Hana kept a ₩3,000,000 target versus a ₩1,345,000 close on persistent MLCC/FCBGA tightness — and that leg had its own earlier shakeout on 2 June.

Only Wolfspeed shows genuine fundamental damage: -27% GAAP gross margin and Q4 revenue guided to $140-160M, with July declines tied to chip-sector weakness and share-supply overhang and a Chinese SiC price war that long predates July. Two hypothesised drivers behave differently than assumed: DDR5 up 7% in July and ~448% YoY is a real margin tax on hardware, but NVIDIA's 800 VDC reference architecture names a dozen silicon and power partners — it widens the supplier set rather than in-sourcing it. VICR's slide did come on rising volume (1.76M shares on 21 July versus 500-900k typical in June), the one distribution-flavoured detail in the pack.